Allianzgi Convertible Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

NCZ Fund  USD 3.30  0.04  1.23%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Allianzgi Convertible Income on the next trading day is expected to be 3.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.85. Allianzgi Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Allianzgi Convertible price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Allianzgi Convertible Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Allianzgi Convertible Income on the next trading day is expected to be 3.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.85.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allianzgi Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allianzgi Convertible's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Allianzgi Convertible Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Allianzgi ConvertibleAllianzgi Convertible Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Allianzgi Convertible Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Allianzgi Convertible's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allianzgi Convertible's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.04 and 4.38, respectively. We have considered Allianzgi Convertible's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.30
3.21
Expected Value
4.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allianzgi Convertible fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allianzgi Convertible fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.2603
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0459
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0149
SAESum of the absolute errors2.8487
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Allianzgi Convertible Income historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Allianzgi Convertible

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allianzgi Convertible. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allianzgi Convertible's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.143.314.48
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.373.544.71
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Allianzgi Convertible

For every potential investor in Allianzgi, whether a beginner or expert, Allianzgi Convertible's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allianzgi Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allianzgi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allianzgi Convertible's price trends.

Allianzgi Convertible Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allianzgi Convertible fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allianzgi Convertible could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allianzgi Convertible by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Allianzgi Convertible Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allianzgi Convertible's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allianzgi Convertible's current price.

Allianzgi Convertible Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allianzgi Convertible fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allianzgi Convertible shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allianzgi Convertible fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Allianzgi Convertible Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Allianzgi Convertible Risk Indicators

The analysis of Allianzgi Convertible's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allianzgi Convertible's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allianzgi fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Allianzgi Fund

Allianzgi Convertible financial ratios help investors to determine whether Allianzgi Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Allianzgi with respect to the benefits of owning Allianzgi Convertible security.
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