Newtek Business Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NEWT Stock | USD 13.66 0.10 0.73% |
Newtek Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Newtek Business' stock price is slightly above 62. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Newtek, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.493 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.688 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.21 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.322 | Wall Street Target Price 16.6 |
Using Newtek Business hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Newtek Business Services from the perspective of Newtek Business response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Newtek Business using Newtek Business' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Newtek using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Newtek Business' stock price.
Newtek Business Short Interest
An investor who is long Newtek Business may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Newtek Business and may potentially protect profits, hedge Newtek Business with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 11.3169 | Short Percent 0.0901 | Short Ratio 9.48 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.5 M | 50 Day MA 11.7028 |
Newtek Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Newtek Business Services on the next trading day is expected to be 13.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.59.Newtek Business Services Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Newtek Business' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Newtek. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Newtek can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Newtek Business Services. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Newtek Business' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Newtek Business.
Newtek Business Implied Volatility | 1.29 |
Newtek Business' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Newtek Business Services stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Newtek Business' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Newtek Business stock will not fluctuate a lot when Newtek Business' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Newtek Business Services on the next trading day is expected to be 13.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.59. Newtek Business after-hype prediction price | USD 14.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Newtek Business to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Newtek contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Newtek Business Services will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0806% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Newtek Business trading at USD 13.66, that is roughly USD 0.011 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Newtek Business' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Newtek Business Services options at the current volatility level of 1.29%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Newtek Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Newtek Business' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Newtek Business' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Newtek Business stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Newtek Business' open interest, investors have to compare it to Newtek Business' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Newtek Business is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Newtek. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Newtek Business Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Newtek price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Newtek using various technical indicators. When you analyze Newtek charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Newtek Business Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Newtek Business Services on the next trading day is expected to be 13.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Newtek Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Newtek Business' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Newtek Business Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Newtek Business | Newtek Business Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Newtek Business Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Newtek Business' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Newtek Business' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.39 and 15.93, respectively. We have considered Newtek Business' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Newtek Business stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Newtek Business stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.7449 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0545 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1932 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0164 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.59 |
Predictive Modules for Newtek Business
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Newtek Business Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Newtek Business' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Newtek Business After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Newtek Business at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Newtek Business or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Newtek Business, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Newtek Business Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Newtek Business' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Newtek Business' historical news coverage. Newtek Business' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.83 and 16.37, respectively. We have considered Newtek Business' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Newtek Business is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Newtek Business Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
Newtek Business Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Newtek Business is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Newtek Business backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Newtek Business, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 2.27 | 0.34 | 0.04 | 9 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.66 | 14.10 | 2.47 |
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Newtek Business Hype Timeline
Newtek Business Services is now traded for 13.66. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Newtek is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 14.1 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 2.47%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.49%. The volatility of related hype on Newtek Business is about 2631.88%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.62. Newtek Business Services currently holds 714.54 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.32, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Newtek Business to cross-verify your projections.Newtek Business Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Newtek Business' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Newtek Business' future price movements. Getting to know how Newtek Business' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Newtek Business may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NEWTP | NewtekOne Depositary Shares | 0.15 | 3 per month | 0.62 | (0.07) | 1.11 | (1.18) | 3.11 | |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp | 0.06 | 9 per month | 1.92 | 0.04 | 4.27 | (3.42) | 17.41 | |
| WTF | Waton Financial Limited | (1.03) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 9.57 | (12.23) | 31.36 | |
| TONX | TON Strategy Co | 0.28 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 11.52 | (10.10) | 31.21 | |
| HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance | (0.29) | 28 per month | 0.79 | 0.11 | 2.53 | (1.59) | 11.64 | |
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | 0.05 | 12 per month | 1.51 | 0.10 | 2.51 | (2.58) | 8.89 | |
| NEWTI | NewtekOne 800 percent | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.45 | (0.06) | 1.35 | (1.06) | 2.99 | |
| LIEN | Chicago Atlantic BDC | 0.09 | 5 per month | 1.39 | 0.03 | 2.70 | (1.71) | 7.58 |
Other Forecasting Options for Newtek Business
For every potential investor in Newtek, whether a beginner or expert, Newtek Business' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Newtek Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Newtek. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Newtek Business' price trends.Newtek Business Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Newtek Business stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Newtek Business could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Newtek Business by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Newtek Business Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Newtek Business stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Newtek Business shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Newtek Business stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Newtek Business Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Newtek Business Risk Indicators
The analysis of Newtek Business' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Newtek Business' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting newtek stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Variance | 5.1 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.31 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Newtek Business
The number of cover stories for Newtek Business depends on current market conditions and Newtek Business' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Newtek Business is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Newtek Business' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Newtek Business Short Properties
Newtek Business' future price predictability will typically decrease when Newtek Business' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Newtek Business Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Newtek Business' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Newtek Business' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 353.1 M |
Additional Tools for Newtek Stock Analysis
When running Newtek Business' price analysis, check to measure Newtek Business' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Newtek Business is operating at the current time. Most of Newtek Business' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Newtek Business' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Newtek Business' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Newtek Business to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.