Netflix Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Netflix is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Netflix value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Netflix Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Netflix on the next trading day is expected to be 106.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32, mean absolute percentage error of 2.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.47.

Netflix Stock Forecast Pattern

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Netflix Price Prediction

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Netflix Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Netflix stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Netflix stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Netflix. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Netflix. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Netflix

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Netflix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 100.03 101.91 103.79 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 78.57 80.45 112.10 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Netflix. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Netflix's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Netflix's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Netflix.

Other Forecasting Options for Netflix

For every potential investor in Netflix, whether a beginner or expert, Netflix's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Netflix Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Netflix. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Netflix's price trends.

Netflix Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Netflix Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Netflix's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Netflix's current price.

Netflix Market Strength Events

Netflix Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Netflix Stock

When determining whether Netflix offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Netflix's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Netflix Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Netflix Stock:

How To Invest In Netflix Details

Is Netflix Stock a good investment? Details

What is Netflix's Net Worth? Details

Largest Movies & Entertainment Companies View

Largest Media & Entertainment Companies View

Altman Z Score Details

Intrinsic Valuation Details

Financial Analysis Details

Buy or Sell Advice Details

Technical Analysis Details

Please note, there is a significant difference between Netflix's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Netflix is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Netflix's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.