Northern Graphite Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

NGC Stock  CAD 0.28  0.03  9.68%   
Northern Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength momentum indicator of Northern Graphite's share price is at 58. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Northern Graphite, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 58

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Northern Graphite's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Northern Graphite and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Northern Graphite's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Northern Graphite, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Northern Graphite's stock price prediction:
Wall Street Target Price
0.5
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.04)
Using Northern Graphite hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Northern Graphite from the perspective of Northern Graphite response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Northern Graphite on the next trading day is expected to be 0.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.15.

Northern Graphite after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 0.38  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern Graphite to cross-verify your projections.

Northern Graphite Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Northern price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Northern using various technical indicators. When you analyze Northern charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Northern Graphite price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Northern Graphite Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Northern Graphite on the next trading day is expected to be 0.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northern Graphite's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Northern Graphite Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Northern Graphite  Northern Graphite Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Northern Graphite Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Northern Graphite's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northern Graphite's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 8.60, respectively. We have considered Northern Graphite's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.28
0.26
Expected Value
8.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northern Graphite stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northern Graphite stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.5616
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0347
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1674
SAESum of the absolute errors2.1504
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Northern Graphite historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Northern Graphite

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northern Graphite. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.020.388.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.010.258.58
Details

Northern Graphite After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Northern Graphite at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Northern Graphite or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Northern Graphite, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Northern Graphite Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Northern Graphite's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Northern Graphite's historical news coverage. Northern Graphite's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.02 and 8.71, respectively. We have considered Northern Graphite's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.28
0.38
After-hype Price
8.71
Upside
Northern Graphite is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Northern Graphite is based on 3 months time horizon.

Northern Graphite Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Northern Graphite is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Northern Graphite backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Northern Graphite, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.13 
8.33
  0.10 
  0.01 
2 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.28
0.38
35.71 
9,256  
Notes

Northern Graphite Hype Timeline

Northern Graphite is now traded for 0.28on TSX Venture Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Northern is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.38 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is anticipated to be 35.71%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 1.13%. The volatility of related hype on Northern Graphite is about 115338.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.29. Northern Graphite has accumulated 39.91 M in total debt. Northern Graphite has a current ratio of 9.77, suggesting that it is liquid and has the ability to pay its financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Northern Graphite until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Northern Graphite's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Northern Graphite sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Northern to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Northern Graphite's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern Graphite to cross-verify your projections.

Northern Graphite Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Northern Graphite's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Northern Graphite's future price movements. Getting to know how Northern Graphite's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Northern Graphite may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ELBMElectra Battery Materials 0.03 8 per month 0.00 (0.10) 10.92 (9.66) 22.87 
WMLWealth Minerals(0.01)4 per month 0.00 (0.04) 14.29 (14.29) 72.22 
LBNKLithiumBank Resources Corp 0.06 6 per month 3.73  0.12  19.23 (7.32) 37.00 
EVNIEV Nickel 0.00 8 per month 4.68  0.04  10.00 (9.09) 37.86 
EMNTEminent Gold Corp(0.01)3 per month 3.83  0.18  13.79 (8.82) 33.33 
GRDMGrid Metals Corp 0.00 5 per month 4.07  0.04  16.67 (7.69) 41.07 
GGIGaribaldi Resources Corp 0.00 3 per month 5.39  0.03  18.18 (10.00) 57.78 
CDCantex Mine Development 0.01 2 per month 6.74  0.04  6.67 (6.25) 65.66 
SMYSearch Minerals(0.02)2 per month 0.00 (0.05) 10.64 (10.00) 51.00 

Other Forecasting Options for Northern Graphite

For every potential investor in Northern, whether a beginner or expert, Northern Graphite's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northern Graphite's price trends.

Northern Graphite Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Northern Graphite stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Northern Graphite could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northern Graphite by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Northern Graphite Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Northern Graphite stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Northern Graphite shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Northern Graphite stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Northern Graphite entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Northern Graphite Risk Indicators

The analysis of Northern Graphite's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northern Graphite's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting northern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Northern Graphite

The number of cover stories for Northern Graphite depends on current market conditions and Northern Graphite's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Northern Graphite is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Northern Graphite's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Northern Stock Analysis

When running Northern Graphite's price analysis, check to measure Northern Graphite's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northern Graphite is operating at the current time. Most of Northern Graphite's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northern Graphite's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northern Graphite's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northern Graphite to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.