Neurogene Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NGNE Stock | 18.31 0.68 3.58% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Neurogene on the next trading day is expected to be 18.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.95. Neurogene Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Neurogene stock prices and determine the direction of Neurogene's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Neurogene's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the rsi of Neurogene's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.11) | EPS Estimate Current Year (4.12) | EPS Estimate Next Year (4.83) | Wall Street Target Price 59 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.09) |
Using Neurogene hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Neurogene from the perspective of Neurogene response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Neurogene using Neurogene's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Neurogene using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Neurogene's stock price.
Neurogene Implied Volatility | 2.1 |
Neurogene's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Neurogene stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Neurogene's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Neurogene stock will not fluctuate a lot when Neurogene's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Neurogene on the next trading day is expected to be 18.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.95. Neurogene after-hype prediction price | USD 18.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Neurogene contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Neurogene will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.13% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Neurogene trading at USD 18.31, that is roughly USD 0.024 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Neurogene's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Neurogene options at the current volatility level of 2.1%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Neurogene Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Neurogene's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Neurogene's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Neurogene stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Neurogene's open interest, investors have to compare it to Neurogene's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Neurogene is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Neurogene. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Neurogene Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Neurogene price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Neurogene using various technical indicators. When you analyze Neurogene charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Neurogene Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Neurogene on the next trading day is expected to be 18.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92, mean absolute percentage error of 1.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Neurogene Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Neurogene's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Neurogene Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Neurogene | Neurogene Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Neurogene Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Neurogene's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Neurogene's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.21 and 23.41, respectively. We have considered Neurogene's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Neurogene stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Neurogene stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8441 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2118 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9158 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0402 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 54.95 |
Predictive Modules for Neurogene
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Neurogene. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Neurogene After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Neurogene at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Neurogene or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Neurogene, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Neurogene Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Neurogene's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Neurogene's historical news coverage. Neurogene's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.26 and 23.46, respectively. We have considered Neurogene's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Neurogene is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Neurogene is based on 3 months time horizon.
Neurogene Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Neurogene is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Neurogene backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Neurogene, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.77 | 5.10 | 0.61 | 0.02 | 5 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
18.31 | 18.36 | 0.27 |
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Neurogene Hype Timeline
Neurogene is now traded for 18.31. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.61, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Neurogene is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 18.36 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.77%. The volatility of related hype on Neurogene is about 25500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.29. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 925 K. Net Loss for the year was (75.14 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (69.72 M). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Neurogene to cross-verify your projections.Neurogene Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Neurogene's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Neurogene's future price movements. Getting to know how Neurogene's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Neurogene may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LCTX | Lineage Cell Therapeutics | (0.05) | 8 per month | 3.47 | (0.01) | 4.65 | (5.68) | 15.77 | |
| OCGN | Ocugen Inc | 0.08 | 10 per month | 4.46 | 0.02 | 7.25 | (7.43) | 32.50 | |
| FULC | Fulcrum Therapeutics | (0.59) | 9 per month | 4.71 | 0.05 | 11.56 | (7.84) | 53.80 | |
| AUTL | Autolus Therapeutics | 0.04 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.45 | (8.67) | 30.76 | |
| ADCT | ADC Therapeutics SA | 0.53 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.49 | (7.06) | 22.84 | |
| BNTC | Benitec Biopharma Ltd | (0.60) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.86 | (6.53) | 28.45 | |
| SLDB | Solid Biosciences LLC | (0.27) | 10 per month | 4.51 | 0.03 | 11.36 | (7.56) | 21.63 | |
| PRTC | PureTech Health PLC | 0.00 | 7 per month | 2.79 | (0.0005) | 4.81 | (5.57) | 14.71 | |
| QSI | QuantumSi | 0.13 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 6.50 | (8.33) | 15.95 | |
| ALMS | Alumis Inc | 0.53 | 10 per month | 2.51 | 0.23 | 10.41 | (6.70) | 96.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Neurogene
For every potential investor in Neurogene, whether a beginner or expert, Neurogene's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Neurogene Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Neurogene. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Neurogene's price trends.Neurogene Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Neurogene stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Neurogene could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Neurogene by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Neurogene Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Neurogene stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Neurogene shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Neurogene stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Neurogene entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Neurogene Risk Indicators
The analysis of Neurogene's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Neurogene's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting neurogene stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.13 | |||
| Variance | 26.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Neurogene
The number of cover stories for Neurogene depends on current market conditions and Neurogene's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Neurogene is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Neurogene's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Neurogene Short Properties
Neurogene's future price predictability will typically decrease when Neurogene's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Neurogene often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Neurogene's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Neurogene's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 312.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Neurogene to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Neurogene Stock refer to our How to Trade Neurogene Stock guide.You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Neurogene. If investors know Neurogene will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Neurogene listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Neurogene is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Neurogene that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Neurogene's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Neurogene's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Neurogene's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Neurogene's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Neurogene's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Neurogene is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Neurogene's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.