Natural Gas Commodity Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NGUSD Commodity | 3.40 0.27 8.63% |
Natural |
Natural Gas Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Natural Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 3.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Natural Commodity prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Natural Gas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Natural Gas Commodity Forecast Pattern
Natural Gas Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Natural Gas' Commodity value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Natural Gas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 8.38, respectively. We have considered Natural Gas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Natural Gas commodity data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Natural Gas commodity, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9396 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.025 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0938 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0348 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.7198 |
Predictive Modules for Natural Gas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natural Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the commodity market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the commodity market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natural Gas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Natural Gas
For every potential investor in Natural, whether a beginner or expert, Natural Gas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Natural Commodity price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Natural. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Natural Gas' price trends.View Natural Gas Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Natural Gas Technical and Predictive Analytics
The commodity market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Natural Gas' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Natural Gas' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Natural Gas Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Natural Gas commodity reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Natural Gas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Natural Gas commodity market strength indicators, traders can identify Natural Gas entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 32.17 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 4.5 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.09 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.37 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.38 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.17 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.27 |
Natural Gas Risk Indicators
The analysis of Natural Gas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Natural Gas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting natural commodity prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.87 | |||
| Variance | 23.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.08) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.