National Healthcare Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| NHPBP Stock | 18.96 0.10 0.52% |
National Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although National Healthcare's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of National Healthcare's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of National Healthcare fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of National Healthcare's stock price is slightly above 68. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling National, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
Using National Healthcare hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Healthcare Properties from the perspective of National Healthcare response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of National Healthcare Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 18.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.19. National Healthcare after-hype prediction price | USD 18.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Healthcare to cross-verify your projections. National Healthcare Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Healthcare Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of National Healthcare Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 18.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Healthcare Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National Healthcare | National Healthcare Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
National Healthcare Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Healthcare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.90 and 19.58, respectively. We have considered National Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Healthcare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Healthcare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0493 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1834 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0101 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.1867 |
Predictive Modules for National Healthcare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National Healthcare After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Healthcare at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Healthcare or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Healthcare, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Healthcare Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Healthcare's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Healthcare's historical news coverage. National Healthcare's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.10 and 19.78, respectively. We have considered National Healthcare's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Healthcare is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Healthcare is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Healthcare Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Healthcare is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Healthcare backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Healthcare, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 0.84 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.96 | 18.94 | 0.11 |
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National Healthcare Hype Timeline
National Healthcare is now traded for 18.96. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. National is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 18.94. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on National Healthcare is about 2333.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.97. About 21.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company last dividend was issued on the 2nd of January 2026. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Healthcare to cross-verify your projections.National Healthcare Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Healthcare's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Healthcare's future price movements. Getting to know how National Healthcare's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Healthcare may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UHT | Universal Health Realty | 0.48 | 9 per month | 1.07 | 0.05 | 2.05 | (2.05) | 6.30 | |
| NHPAP | National Healthcare Properties | (0.07) | 5 per month | 0.46 | 0.06 | 1.03 | (1.07) | 4.13 | |
| CHCT | Community Healthcare Trust | (0.48) | 8 per month | 1.15 | 0.19 | 2.83 | (1.83) | 8.25 | |
| GMRE | Global Medical REIT | (0.12) | 9 per month | 1.21 | 0.08 | 3.49 | (1.87) | 9.05 | |
| PKST | Peakstone Realty Trust | 0.08 | 9 per month | 1.59 | 0.06 | 2.95 | (2.35) | 12.25 | |
| AHH | Armada Hflr Pr | 0.17 | 9 per month | 1.58 | (0) | 3.16 | (2.97) | 7.04 | |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | 0.13 | 9 per month | 0.80 | 0.20 | 2.47 | (1.86) | 8.03 | |
| RC | Ready Capital Corp | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.19 | (4.92) | 14.40 | |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.66 | (2.77) | 6.97 | |
| RMR | RMR Group | (0.01) | 10 per month | 1.25 | 0.04 | 2.67 | (2.17) | 9.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for National Healthcare
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Healthcare's price trends.National Healthcare Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Healthcare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Healthcare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Healthcare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Healthcare Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Healthcare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Healthcare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Healthcare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Healthcare Properties entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.96 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.96 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.05) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 68.26 |
National Healthcare Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6982 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.695 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Variance | 1.03 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8562 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.483 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National Healthcare
The number of cover stories for National Healthcare depends on current market conditions and National Healthcare's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Healthcare is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Healthcare's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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National Healthcare Short Properties
National Healthcare's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Healthcare's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Healthcare Properties often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Healthcare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Healthcare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 28.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 21.7 M |
Additional Tools for National Stock Analysis
When running National Healthcare's price analysis, check to measure National Healthcare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Healthcare is operating at the current time. Most of National Healthcare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Healthcare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Healthcare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Healthcare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.