Neuberger Berman Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

NHS Fund

USD 6.46 -0.03 -0.46%

This Double Exponential Smoothing projection for Neuberger Berman is fitted to the equity's recent daily closes. Low error metrics relative to the price level indicate the model fits recent trading behavior well. Older observations carry less weight in the current projection as the price series extends. The Double Exponential Smoothing model projects Neuberger Berman at 6.46 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This forecast is one analytical input among many and should be assessed in the context of broader analysis.

Double exponential smoothing (Holt method) for Neuberger Berman extends simple exponential smoothing by adding a trend component. This allows the model to track directional price movement rather than lagging behind a trending series.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Neuberger Berman at 6.46 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 2.88 .

This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Neuberger Berman's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Neuberger Berman

Neuberger Berman Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

This forecast for Neuberger Berman frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The current forecast range spans downside near 5.40 and upside near 7.52. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.

Market Value

6.46

5.40

Downside

6.46

Expected Value

7.52

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Double Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Neuberger Berman fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	Huge
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	0.0011
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.048
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0071
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	2.8779

The model estimates both the level and slope of Neuberger Berman High prices, giving exponentially decreasing weight to older observations. It is best suited for Neuberger Berman price data that exhibits a persistent upward or downward trend. A wide divergence between the forecast and actual values may indicate a trend reversal or regime change.

Other Forecasting Options for Neuberger Berman

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Neuberger Berman Fund price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Neuberger Berman occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Neuberger Berman's historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves.

Neuberger Berman Comparable Funds

These peer funds are related to Neuberger Berman and help frame its category context. Funds are typically compared on holdings mix, category returns, risk measures, and implementation cost rather than on operating-company margins. Peer comparison adds context for Neuberger Berman without forcing a company-style competitive framework onto the fund.

Royce Small Cap Value Simt Tax Managed International Dreyfus Opportunistic Small Ashmore Emerging Markets Ashmore Emerging Markets Summit Global Investments Biotechnology Ultrasector Profund Western Asset High BlackRock Munivest Sit Dividend Growth American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

Neuberger Berman Market Strength Events

Rate of Change and Momentum readings for Neuberger Berman measure the velocity of recent price moves rather than direction alone. These indicators add context to how recent sessions in Neuberger Berman have behaved. These indicators are most informative when viewed alongside Neuberger Berman's volume profile and volatility measures.

	Accumulation Distribution	1721.81
	Daily Balance Of Power	-0.50
	Rate Of Daily Change	1.0
	Day Median Price	6.49
	Day Typical Price	6.48
	Price Action Indicator	-0.04
	Period Momentum Indicator	-0.03
	Relative Strength Index	40.59

Neuberger Berman Risk Indicators

Standard deviation and variance for Neuberger Berman measure total price dispersion, while semi-deviation isolates only the downside moves. Higher variance relative to sector peers signals that Neuberger Berman's price path has been less predictable over the measured period. Analyzing Neuberger Berman's risk indicators helps explain how recent moves compare with its broader trading range.

	Mean Deviation	0.6945
	Standard Deviation	1.04
	Variance	1.08

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average