NCBA GROUP Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| NIC Stock | 41.90 0.15 0.36% |
NCBA |
NCBA GROUP Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of NCBA GROUP PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 41.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73, mean absolute percentage error of 0.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NCBA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NCBA GROUP's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NCBA GROUP Stock Forecast Pattern
NCBA GROUP Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NCBA GROUP's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NCBA GROUP's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.18 and 43.30, respectively. We have considered NCBA GROUP's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NCBA GROUP stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NCBA GROUP stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.8561 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7291 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0171 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 45.2065 |
Predictive Modules for NCBA GROUP
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NCBA GROUP PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NCBA GROUP's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for NCBA GROUP
For every potential investor in NCBA, whether a beginner or expert, NCBA GROUP's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NCBA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NCBA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NCBA GROUP's price trends.NCBA GROUP Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NCBA GROUP stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NCBA GROUP could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NCBA GROUP by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NCBA GROUP PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NCBA GROUP's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NCBA GROUP's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NCBA GROUP Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NCBA GROUP stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NCBA GROUP shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NCBA GROUP stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NCBA GROUP PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
NCBA GROUP Risk Indicators
The analysis of NCBA GROUP's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NCBA GROUP's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ncba stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.16) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.