Nuveen Municipal Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NMCO Fund | USD 11.05 0.02 0.18% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nuveen Municipal Credit on the next trading day is expected to be 11.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.94. Nuveen Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Nuveen |
Nuveen Municipal Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nuveen Municipal Credit on the next trading day is expected to be 11.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nuveen Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nuveen Municipal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Nuveen Municipal Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Nuveen Municipal | Nuveen Municipal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Nuveen Municipal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Nuveen Municipal's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nuveen Municipal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.46 and 11.89, respectively. We have considered Nuveen Municipal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nuveen Municipal fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nuveen Municipal fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8192 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0975 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0086 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.9445 |
Predictive Modules for Nuveen Municipal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nuveen Municipal Credit. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nuveen Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Nuveen Municipal
For every potential investor in Nuveen, whether a beginner or expert, Nuveen Municipal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nuveen Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nuveen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nuveen Municipal's price trends.Nuveen Municipal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nuveen Municipal fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nuveen Municipal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nuveen Municipal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Nuveen Municipal Credit Technical and Predictive Analytics
The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nuveen Municipal's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nuveen Municipal's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Nuveen Municipal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nuveen Municipal fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nuveen Municipal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nuveen Municipal fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Nuveen Municipal Credit entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Nuveen Municipal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Nuveen Municipal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nuveen Municipal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nuveen fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5272 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7101 | |||
| Variance | 0.5043 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Nuveen Municipal
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Nuveen Municipal position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Nuveen Municipal will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Nuveen Fund
| 0.65 | NHCCX | Nuveen High Yield | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | NHMFX | Nuveen High Yield | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | ABHFX | American High Income | PairCorr |
Moving against Nuveen Fund
| 0.5 | VTSMX | Vanguard Total Stock | PairCorr |
| 0.45 | NTG | Tortoise Mlp Closed | PairCorr |
| 0.31 | AWRRF | AW Revenue Royalties | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Nuveen Municipal could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Nuveen Municipal when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Nuveen Municipal - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Nuveen Municipal Credit to buy it.
The correlation of Nuveen Municipal is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Nuveen Municipal moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Nuveen Municipal Credit moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Nuveen Municipal can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Nuveen Fund
Nuveen Municipal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nuveen Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nuveen with respect to the benefits of owning Nuveen Municipal security.
| Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals | |
| Pair Correlation Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments | |
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| Equity Search Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets |