North American Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NOA Stock | USD 14.87 0.06 0.40% |
North Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast North American stock prices and determine the direction of North American Construction's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of North American's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of North American's share price is at 51. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling North American, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.148 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.71 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.897 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.8386 | Wall Street Target Price 18.9348 |
Using North American hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of North American Construction from the perspective of North American response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards North American using North American's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards North using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of North American's stock price.
North American Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in North American's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards North. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of North American stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 15.0465 | Short Percent 0.0107 | Short Ratio 1.63 | Shares Short Prior Month 336.7 K | 50 Day MA 14.434 |
North Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of North American Construction on the next trading day is expected to be 14.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.27.North American Const Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to North American's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in North. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding North can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around North American Construction. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of North American's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about North American.
North American Implied Volatility | 0.92 |
North American's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of North American Construction stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if North American's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that North American stock will not fluctuate a lot when North American's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of North American Construction on the next trading day is expected to be 14.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.27. North American after-hype prediction price | USD 14.89 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of North American to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current North contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that North American Construction will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0575% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With North American trading at USD 14.87, that is roughly USD 0.00855 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating North American's daily price movement you should consider acquiring North American Construction options at the current volatility level of 0.92%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 North Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast North American's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in North American's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for North American stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current North American's open interest, investors have to compare it to North American's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of North American is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in North. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
North American Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine North price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for North using various technical indicators. When you analyze North charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
North American Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of North American Construction on the next trading day is expected to be 14.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict North Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that North American's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
North American Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest North American | North American Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
North American Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting North American's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. North American's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.64 and 17.11, respectively. We have considered North American's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of North American stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent North American stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8556 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0231 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2378 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0166 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.2691 |
Predictive Modules for North American
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as North American Const. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.North American After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of North American at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in North American or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of North American, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
North American Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting North American's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on North American's historical news coverage. North American's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.66 and 17.12, respectively. We have considered North American's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
North American is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of North American Const is based on 3 months time horizon.
North American Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as North American is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading North American backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with North American, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 2.23 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
14.87 | 14.89 | 0.13 |
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North American Hype Timeline
On the 4th of February North American Const is traded for 14.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. North is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 14.89 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on North American is about 2230.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.86. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.17 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 44.09 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 360.21 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of North American to cross-verify your projections.North American Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to North American's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict North American's future price movements. Getting to know how North American's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how North American may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OIS | Oil States International | (0.13) | 8 per month | 2.63 | 0.13 | 5.17 | (3.42) | 11.95 | |
| NGS | Natural Gas Services | 0.22 | 9 per month | 1.80 | 0.16 | 3.46 | (2.45) | 11.12 | |
| SD | SandRidge Energy | 0.64 | 6 per month | 1.67 | 0.22 | 4.01 | (2.46) | 10.99 | |
| FTK | Flotek Industries | (0.05) | 10 per month | 3.78 | 0.03 | 8.73 | (6.77) | 24.18 | |
| TBN | Tamboran Resources | (1.25) | 8 per month | 2.21 | 0.05 | 4.46 | (3.26) | 14.63 | |
| GPRK | GeoPark | 0.03 | 9 per month | 2.15 | 0.07 | 4.23 | (3.24) | 32.73 | |
| EGY | Vaalco Energy | (0.11) | 7 per month | 1.67 | 0.18 | 5.48 | (3.33) | 10.23 | |
| FET | Forum Energy Technologies | (0.46) | 11 per month | 3.58 | 0.17 | 5.52 | (3.56) | 17.20 | |
| RNGR | Ranger Energy Services | (0.1) | 7 per month | 1.78 | 0.12 | 3.77 | (3.79) | 8.57 | |
| SGU | Star Gas Partners | 0.21 | 8 per month | 0.92 | 0.14 | 2.10 | (1.45) | 6.43 |
Other Forecasting Options for North American
For every potential investor in North, whether a beginner or expert, North American's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. North Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in North. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying North American's price trends.North American Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with North American stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of North American could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing North American by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
North American Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how North American stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading North American shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying North American stock market strength indicators, traders can identify North American Construction entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.87 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.87 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.75 |
North American Risk Indicators
The analysis of North American's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in North American's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting north stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Variance | 5.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for North American
The number of cover stories for North American depends on current market conditions and North American's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that North American is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about North American's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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North American Short Properties
North American's future price predictability will typically decrease when North American's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of North American Construction often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential North American's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. North American's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 77.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of North American to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Is Oil & Gas Equipment & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of North American. Anticipated expansion of North directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive North American assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.148 | Dividend Share 0.48 | Earnings Share 0.93 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.106 |
Investors evaluate North American Const using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating North American's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause North American's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between North American's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding North American should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, North American's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.