Novanta Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| NOVT Stock | USD 143.93 1.70 1.17% |
Novanta Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Novanta's share price is above 70 at this time. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Novanta, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.44) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.94 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.2533 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.6133 | Wall Street Target Price 154 |
Using Novanta hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Novanta from the perspective of Novanta response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Novanta using Novanta's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Novanta using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Novanta's stock price.
Novanta Short Interest
An investor who is long Novanta may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Novanta and may potentially protect profits, hedge Novanta with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 120.923 | Short Percent 0.1332 | Short Ratio 7.1 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.9 M | 50 Day MA 128.3792 |
Novanta Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Novanta on the next trading day is expected to be 146.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 165.95.Novanta Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Novanta's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Novanta. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Novanta can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Novanta. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Novanta's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Novanta.
Novanta Implied Volatility | 0.63 |
Novanta's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Novanta stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Novanta's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Novanta stock will not fluctuate a lot when Novanta's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Novanta on the next trading day is expected to be 146.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 165.95. Novanta after-hype prediction price | USD 150.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Novanta to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Novanta contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Novanta will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0394% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Novanta trading at USD 143.93, that is roughly USD 0.0567 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Novanta's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Novanta options at the current volatility level of 0.63%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Novanta Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Novanta's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Novanta's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Novanta stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Novanta's open interest, investors have to compare it to Novanta's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Novanta is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Novanta. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Novanta Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Novanta price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Novanta using various technical indicators. When you analyze Novanta charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Novanta Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Novanta on the next trading day is expected to be 146.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.72, mean absolute percentage error of 15.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 165.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Novanta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Novanta's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Novanta Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Novanta | Novanta Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Novanta Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Novanta's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Novanta's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 143.54 and 148.89, respectively. We have considered Novanta's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Novanta stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Novanta stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.826 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.7205 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.022 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 165.9495 |
Predictive Modules for Novanta
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Novanta. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novanta's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Novanta After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Novanta at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Novanta or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Novanta, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Novanta Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Novanta's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Novanta's historical news coverage. Novanta's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 131.07 and 152.86, respectively. We have considered Novanta's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Novanta is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Novanta is based on 3 months time horizon.
Novanta Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Novanta is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Novanta backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Novanta, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.57 | 2.67 | 4.56 | 0.69 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
143.93 | 150.19 | 3.13 |
|
Novanta Hype Timeline
Novanta is now traded for 143.93. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 4.56, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.69. Novanta is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 150.19 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 33.38%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 3.13%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.57%. The volatility of related hype on Novanta is about 220.84%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 143.24. Novanta currently holds 471 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.87, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Novanta to cross-verify your projections.Novanta Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Novanta's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Novanta's future price movements. Getting to know how Novanta's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Novanta may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ITRI | Itron Inc | 0.98 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.59 | (4.08) | 11.17 | |
| OSIS | OSI Systems | (14.20) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.86 | (4.34) | 14.59 | |
| ST | Sensata Technologies Holding | (1.04) | 7 per month | 1.92 | 0.09 | 3.88 | (3.37) | 10.49 | |
| VICR | Vicor | 3.01 | 10 per month | 3.27 | 0.21 | 6.34 | (6.12) | 23.16 | |
| BMI | Badger Meter | (3.33) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.58 | (4.32) | 16.79 | |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies | 6.14 | 8 per month | 1.68 | 0.14 | 3.47 | (3.31) | 9.94 | |
| VNT | Vontier Corp | (2.19) | 6 per month | 1.63 | 0.07 | 3.41 | (2.80) | 8.92 | |
| BDC | Belden Inc | (0.99) | 5 per month | 1.53 | 0.16 | 4.37 | (2.93) | 10.85 | |
| BULL | Webull Corp | (0.24) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 5.41 | (5.93) | 19.31 | |
| PLXS | Plexus Corp | (0.23) | 10 per month | 2.11 | 0.17 | 4.31 | (3.99) | 12.94 |
Other Forecasting Options for Novanta
For every potential investor in Novanta, whether a beginner or expert, Novanta's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Novanta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Novanta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Novanta's price trends.Novanta Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Novanta stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Novanta could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Novanta by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Novanta Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Novanta stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Novanta shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Novanta stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Novanta entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 143.93 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 143.93 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.85) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.70) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 70.32 |
Novanta Risk Indicators
The analysis of Novanta's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Novanta's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting novanta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Variance | 7.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.15) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Novanta
The number of cover stories for Novanta depends on current market conditions and Novanta's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Novanta is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Novanta's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Novanta Short Properties
Novanta's future price predictability will typically decrease when Novanta's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Novanta often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Novanta's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Novanta's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 114 M |
Additional Tools for Novanta Stock Analysis
When running Novanta's price analysis, check to measure Novanta's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novanta is operating at the current time. Most of Novanta's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novanta's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novanta's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novanta to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.