ServiceNow Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

NOW Stock  USD 131.65  4.69  3.44%   
ServiceNow Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength indicator of ServiceNow's share price is approaching 33. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ServiceNow, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 33

 Sell Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of ServiceNow's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ServiceNow and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ServiceNow's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ServiceNow, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting ServiceNow's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.159
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
4.4908
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.4798
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.0748
Wall Street Target Price
208.3673
Using ServiceNow hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ServiceNow from the perspective of ServiceNow response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ServiceNow using ServiceNow's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ServiceNow using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ServiceNow's stock price.

ServiceNow Short Interest

An investor who is long ServiceNow may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ServiceNow and may potentially protect profits, hedge ServiceNow with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
179.6277
Short Percent
0.0162
Short Ratio
1.79
Shares Short Prior Month
18.6 M
50 Day MA
155.3892

ServiceNow Relative Strength Index

The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ServiceNow on the next trading day is expected to be 132.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 168.67.

ServiceNow Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to ServiceNow's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ServiceNow. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ServiceNow can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ServiceNow. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ServiceNow's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ServiceNow.

ServiceNow Implied Volatility

    
  0.31  
ServiceNow's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ServiceNow stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ServiceNow's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ServiceNow stock will not fluctuate a lot when ServiceNow's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ServiceNow on the next trading day is expected to be 132.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 168.67.

ServiceNow after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 135.81  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ServiceNow to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy ServiceNow Stock please use our How to Invest in ServiceNow guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ServiceNow contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ServiceNow will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0194% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With ServiceNow trading at USD 131.65, that is roughly USD 0.0255 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ServiceNow's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ServiceNow options at the current volatility level of 0.31%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 ServiceNow Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ServiceNow's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ServiceNow's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ServiceNow stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ServiceNow's open interest, investors have to compare it to ServiceNow's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ServiceNow is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ServiceNow. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

ServiceNow Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ServiceNow price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ServiceNow using various technical indicators. When you analyze ServiceNow charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for ServiceNow - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When ServiceNow prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in ServiceNow price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of ServiceNow.

ServiceNow Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ServiceNow on the next trading day is expected to be 132.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.86, mean absolute percentage error of 16.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 168.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ServiceNow Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ServiceNow's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ServiceNow Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ServiceNow  ServiceNow Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

ServiceNow Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ServiceNow's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ServiceNow's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 129.95 and 134.37, respectively. We have considered ServiceNow's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
131.65
129.95
Downside
132.16
Expected Value
134.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ServiceNow stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ServiceNow stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.4732
MADMean absolute deviation2.8588
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0185
SAESum of the absolute errors168.6673
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past ServiceNow observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older ServiceNow observations.

Predictive Modules for ServiceNow

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ServiceNow. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
133.60135.81138.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
122.71155.31157.52
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
122.01142.55163.10
Details
47 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
189.61208.37231.29
Details

ServiceNow After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of ServiceNow at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ServiceNow or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ServiceNow, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

ServiceNow Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting ServiceNow's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ServiceNow's historical news coverage. ServiceNow's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 133.60 and 138.02, respectively. We have considered ServiceNow's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
131.65
133.60
Downside
135.81
After-hype Price
138.02
Upside
ServiceNow is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ServiceNow is based on 3 months time horizon.

ServiceNow Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ServiceNow is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ServiceNow backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ServiceNow, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.45 
2.21
  0.30 
  2.26 
38 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 38 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
131.65
135.81
0.39 
334.85  
Notes

ServiceNow Hype Timeline

On the 27th of January ServiceNow is traded for 131.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.3, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -2.26. ServiceNow is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 135.81. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.39%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.45%. The volatility of related hype on ServiceNow is about 44.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 129.39. About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.21. ServiceNow had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 5:1 split on the 18th of December 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 38 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ServiceNow to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy ServiceNow Stock please use our How to Invest in ServiceNow guide.

ServiceNow Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to ServiceNow's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ServiceNow's future price movements. Getting to know how ServiceNow's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ServiceNow may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
INTUIntuit Inc(8.81)8 per month 0.00 (0.17) 2.38 (3.37) 10.42 
APPApplovin Corp(19.42)8 per month 3.72 (0.02) 5.14 (6.46) 15.84 
UBERUber Technologies(0.13)7 per month 0.00 (0.12) 2.60 (3.82) 10.23 
SHOPShopify(5.58)7 per month 0.00 (0.11) 5.06 (5.93) 12.99 
AMATApplied Materials 2.13 9 per month 2.06  0.18  5.00 (3.61) 10.80 
ANETArista Networks(8.81)41 per month 3.09 (0.02) 5.22 (4.56) 12.76 
QCOMQualcomm Incorporated(1.97)8 per month 0.00 (0.08) 3.48 (3.93) 15.88 
CRMSalesforce(8.81)37 per month 0.00 (0.13) 2.94 (3.10) 12.37 
LRCXLam Research Corp 4.20 7 per month 2.49  0.19  6.26 (4.85) 12.15 
PANWPalo Alto Networks(2.99)5 per month 0.00 (0.17) 2.05 (2.62) 9.42 

Other Forecasting Options for ServiceNow

For every potential investor in ServiceNow, whether a beginner or expert, ServiceNow's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ServiceNow Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ServiceNow. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ServiceNow's price trends.

ServiceNow Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ServiceNow stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ServiceNow could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ServiceNow by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ServiceNow Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ServiceNow stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ServiceNow shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ServiceNow stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ServiceNow entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ServiceNow Risk Indicators

The analysis of ServiceNow's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ServiceNow's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting servicenow stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for ServiceNow

The number of cover stories for ServiceNow depends on current market conditions and ServiceNow's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ServiceNow is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ServiceNow's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

ServiceNow Short Properties

ServiceNow's future price predictability will typically decrease when ServiceNow's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ServiceNow often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ServiceNow's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ServiceNow's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares OutstandingB
Cash And Short Term Investments5.8 B

Additional Tools for ServiceNow Stock Analysis

When running ServiceNow's price analysis, check to measure ServiceNow's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ServiceNow is operating at the current time. Most of ServiceNow's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ServiceNow's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ServiceNow's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ServiceNow to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.