New Providence Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| NPAC Stock | 10.38 0.02 0.19% |
New Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast New Providence stock prices and determine the direction of New Providence Acquisition's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of New Providence's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of New Providence's stock price is about 65. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling New, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using New Providence hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of New Providence Acquisition from the perspective of New Providence response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of New Providence Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 10.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.81. New Providence after-hype prediction price | USD 10.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Providence to cross-verify your projections. New Providence Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine New price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for New using various technical indicators. When you analyze New charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
New Providence Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of New Providence Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 10.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Providence's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
New Providence Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest New Providence | New Providence Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
New Providence Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting New Providence's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. New Providence's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.23 and 10.55, respectively. We have considered New Providence's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Providence stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Providence stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0019 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0138 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0013 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.8143 |
Predictive Modules for New Providence
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Providence Acqui. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.New Providence After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of New Providence at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in New Providence or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of New Providence, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
New Providence Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting New Providence's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on New Providence's historical news coverage. New Providence's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.22 and 10.54, respectively. We have considered New Providence's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
New Providence is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of New Providence Acqui is based on 3 months time horizon.
New Providence Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as New Providence is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading New Providence backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with New Providence, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 18 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 18 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.38 | 10.38 | 0.00 |
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New Providence Hype Timeline
New Providence Acqui is now traded for 10.38. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. New is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 47.06%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on New Providence is about 118.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.38. About 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 18 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Providence to cross-verify your projections.New Providence Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to New Providence's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict New Providence's future price movements. Getting to know how New Providence's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how New Providence may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SIMA | SIM Acquisition Corp | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.14 | (0.35) | 0.28 | (0.38) | 1.42 | |
| ATII | Archimedes Tech SPAC | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 0.39 | (0.29) | 0.87 | |
| JACS | Jackson Acquisition | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.06 | (0.36) | 0.29 | (0.29) | 0.96 | |
| VCIC | Vine Hill Capital | 0.00 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 0.94 | (1.16) | 3.87 | |
| OBA | Oxley Bridge Acquisition | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.04 | (0.42) | 0.30 | (0.20) | 0.89 | |
| MLAC | Mountain Lake Acquisition | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.13 | (0.43) | 0.29 | (0.19) | 1.15 | |
| POLE | Andretti Acquisition Corp | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.30 | (0.17) | 0.38 | (0.75) | 2.71 | |
| CHAC | Crane Harbor Acquisition | (1.10) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.22 | (2.61) | 17.55 |
Other Forecasting Options for New Providence
For every potential investor in New, whether a beginner or expert, New Providence's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. New Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in New. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying New Providence's price trends.New Providence Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with New Providence stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of New Providence could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing New Providence by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
New Providence Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how New Providence stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading New Providence shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying New Providence stock market strength indicators, traders can identify New Providence Acquisition entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.38 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 65.65 |
New Providence Risk Indicators
The analysis of New Providence's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New Providence's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting new stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1219 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.165 | |||
| Variance | 0.0272 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0358 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.0008) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.20) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for New Providence
The number of cover stories for New Providence depends on current market conditions and New Providence's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that New Providence is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about New Providence's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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New Providence Short Properties
New Providence's future price predictability will typically decrease when New Providence's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of New Providence Acquisition often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential New Providence's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. New Providence's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Shares Short Prior Month | 622 | |
| Shares Float | 28.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Providence to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Will Diversified Capital Markets sector continue expanding? Could New diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of New Providence. Anticipated expansion of New directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every New Providence data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of New Providence Acqui is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of New that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of New Providence's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is New Providence's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because New Providence's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect New Providence's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between New Providence's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding New Providence should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, New Providence's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.