National Research Stock Forward View
| NRC Stock | USD 15.94 0.01 0.06% |
National Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast National Research stock prices and determine the direction of National Research Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of National Research's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of National Research's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.71) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
Using National Research hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Research Corp from the perspective of National Research response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards National Research using National Research's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards National using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of National Research's stock price.
National Research Implied Volatility | 0.82 |
National Research's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of National Research Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if National Research's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that National Research stock will not fluctuate a lot when National Research's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Research Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.53. National Research after-hype prediction price | USD 16.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Research to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current National contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that National Research Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0513% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With National Research trading at USD 15.94, that is roughly USD 0.008169 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating National Research's daily price movement you should consider acquiring National Research Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.82%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 National Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast National Research's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in National Research's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for National Research stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current National Research's open interest, investors have to compare it to National Research's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of National Research is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in National. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
National Research Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Research Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the National Research's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1997-12-31 | Previous Quarter 2.2 M | Current Value 4.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 14.6 M |
National Research Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Research Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 0.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Research's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Research Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National Research | National Research Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
National Research Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Research's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Research's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.48 and 17.75, respectively. We have considered National Research's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Research stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Research stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6753 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6153 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.034 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.5319 |
Predictive Modules for National Research
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Research Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National Research After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Research at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Research or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Research, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Research Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Research's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Research's historical news coverage. National Research's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.87 and 20.21, respectively. We have considered National Research's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Research is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Research Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Research Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Research is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Research backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Research, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 4.13 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.94 | 16.04 | 0.69 |
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National Research Hype Timeline
On the 6th of February National Research Corp is traded for 15.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.16. National is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 16.04 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.69%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on National Research is about 671.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.78. The company reported the last year's revenue of 137.39 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 11.6 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 85.02 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Research to cross-verify your projections.National Research Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Research's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Research's future price movements. Getting to know how National Research's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Research may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ENSG | The Ensign Group | (2.17) | 7 per month | 1.17 | 0.05 | 3.15 | (1.62) | 6.93 | |
| ALGN | Align Technology | (1.15) | 11 per month | 1.28 | 0.15 | 4.53 | (2.54) | 11.36 | |
| UHS | Universal Health Services | 1.86 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.49 | (2.87) | 8.92 | |
| ATR | AptarGroup | (0.07) | 8 per month | 1.32 | 0.05 | 2.48 | (1.98) | 6.11 | |
| BIO | Bio Rad Laboratories | (6.93) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.02 | (2.83) | 8.43 | |
| CHE | Chemed Corp | (3.94) | 8 per month | 1.13 | 0.03 | 2.25 | (1.94) | 5.87 | |
| MOH | Molina Healthcare | 3.70 | 12 per month | 2.65 | 0.08 | 3.97 | (3.94) | 13.66 | |
| RVMD | Revolution Medicines | 1.93 | 7 per month | 2.96 | 0.17 | 4.56 | (2.52) | 45.50 | |
| BMRN | Biomarin Pharmaceutical | 0.44 | 11 per month | 1.50 | 0.03 | 3.15 | (2.32) | 22.06 | |
| HSIC | Henry Schein | 0.18 | 9 per month | 1.25 | 0.14 | 2.63 | (2.60) | 13.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for National Research
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Research's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Research's price trends.National Research Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Research stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Research could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Research by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Research Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Research stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Research shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Research stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Research Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 16094.29 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0116 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.02 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.99 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
National Research Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Research's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Research's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.03 | |||
| Variance | 16.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 28.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 24.96 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National Research
The number of cover stories for National Research depends on current market conditions and National Research's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Research is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Research's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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National Research Short Properties
National Research's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Research's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Research Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Research's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Research's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 22.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Research to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Will Health Care Providers & Services sector continue expanding? Could National diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Research. Anticipated expansion of National directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every National Research data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.71) | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 0.5 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
Understanding National Research Corp requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects National's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what National Research's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push National Research's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between National Research's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding National Research should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, National Research's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.