Northrop Grumman Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

NTH Stock  EUR 464.60  0.80  0.17%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Northrop Grumman on the next trading day is expected to be 452.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 377.20. Northrop Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Northrop Grumman's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Northrop Grumman is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Northrop Grumman value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Northrop Grumman Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Northrop Grumman on the next trading day is expected to be 452.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.18, mean absolute percentage error of 65.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 377.20.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northrop Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northrop Grumman's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Northrop Grumman Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Northrop GrummanNorthrop Grumman Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Northrop Grumman Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Northrop Grumman's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northrop Grumman's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 450.76 and 453.54, respectively. We have considered Northrop Grumman's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
464.60
450.76
Downside
452.15
Expected Value
453.54
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northrop Grumman stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northrop Grumman stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.2858
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.1836
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0129
SAESum of the absolute errors377.1983
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Northrop Grumman. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Northrop Grumman. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Northrop Grumman

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northrop Grumman. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
463.21464.60465.99
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
407.46408.85511.06
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Northrop Grumman

For every potential investor in Northrop, whether a beginner or expert, Northrop Grumman's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northrop Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northrop. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northrop Grumman's price trends.

Northrop Grumman Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Northrop Grumman stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Northrop Grumman could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northrop Grumman by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Northrop Grumman Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Northrop Grumman's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Northrop Grumman's current price.

Northrop Grumman Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Northrop Grumman stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Northrop Grumman shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Northrop Grumman stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Northrop Grumman entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Northrop Grumman Risk Indicators

The analysis of Northrop Grumman's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northrop Grumman's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting northrop stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Northrop Stock

When determining whether Northrop Grumman offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Northrop Grumman's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Northrop Grumman Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Northrop Grumman Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northrop Grumman to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Northrop Stock please use our How to Invest in Northrop Grumman guide.
You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northrop Grumman's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northrop Grumman is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northrop Grumman's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.