Natera Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| NTRA Stock | USD 206.23 1.61 0.77% |
Natera Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Natera stock prices and determine the direction of Natera Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Natera's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the rsi of Natera's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.34) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.42) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.99) | Wall Street Target Price 257.2 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.35) |
Using Natera hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Natera Inc from the perspective of Natera response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Natera using Natera's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Natera using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Natera's stock price.
Natera Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Natera's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Natera. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Natera stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 184.9653 | Short Percent 0.0255 | Short Ratio 3.15 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.5 M | 50 Day MA 232.0822 |
Natera Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Natera Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 206.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 294.80.Natera Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Natera's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Natera. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Natera can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Natera Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Natera's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Natera.
Natera Implied Volatility | 0.58 |
Natera's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Natera Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Natera's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Natera stock will not fluctuate a lot when Natera's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Natera Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 206.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 294.80. Natera after-hype prediction price | USD 206.22 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Natera to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Natera contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Natera Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0363% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Natera trading at USD 206.23, that is roughly USD 0.0748 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Natera's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Natera Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.58%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Natera Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Natera's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Natera's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Natera stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Natera's open interest, investors have to compare it to Natera's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Natera is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Natera. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Natera Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Natera price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Natera using various technical indicators. When you analyze Natera charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Natera Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 15th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Natera Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 206.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.91, mean absolute percentage error of 47.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 294.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Natera Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Natera's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Natera Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Natera | Natera Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Natera Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Natera's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Natera's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 203.84 and 208.62, respectively. We have considered Natera's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Natera stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Natera stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.1232 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1221 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.9133 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0216 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 294.795 |
Predictive Modules for Natera
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natera Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Natera After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Natera at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Natera or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Natera, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Natera Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Natera's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Natera's historical news coverage. Natera's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 203.83 and 208.61, respectively. We have considered Natera's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Natera is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Natera Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Natera Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Natera is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Natera backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Natera, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.39 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
206.23 | 206.22 | 0.00 |
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Natera Hype Timeline
Natera Inc is now traded for 206.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Natera is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Natera is about 504.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 206.22. About 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.29. Natera Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Natera to cross-verify your projections.Natera Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Natera's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Natera's future price movements. Getting to know how Natera's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Natera may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MTD | Mettler Toledo International | (1.08) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.51 | (2.40) | 7.69 | |
| WAT | Waters | (0.49) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.25 | (2.08) | 18.00 | |
| BNTX | BioNTech SE | (0.15) | 8 per month | 2.48 | (0.01) | 3.41 | (4.28) | 16.07 | |
| DGX | Quest Diagnostics Incorporated | 0.39 | 11 per month | 0.96 | 0.08 | 2.75 | (1.85) | 8.55 | |
| TEVA | Teva Pharma Industries | (1.22) | 9 per month | 0.82 | 0.26 | 3.59 | (1.61) | 8.88 | |
| PHG | Koninklijke Philips NV | 0.38 | 9 per month | 1.69 | 0.05 | 2.53 | (2.41) | 13.66 | |
| ILMN | Illumina | (5.45) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.85 | (3.26) | 15.59 | |
| IQV | IQVIA Holdings | 1.29 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.30 | (4.70) | 15.97 | |
| DXCM | DexCom Inc | 0.11 | 9 per month | 1.29 | 0.16 | 3.31 | (2.78) | 10.50 | |
| STE | STERIS plc | 1.48 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.79 | (2.68) | 10.43 |
Other Forecasting Options for Natera
For every potential investor in Natera, whether a beginner or expert, Natera's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Natera Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Natera. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Natera's price trends.Natera Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Natera stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Natera could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Natera by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Natera Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Natera stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Natera shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Natera stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Natera Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 34315.88 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.17) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 208.67 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 207.86 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (3.25) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.61) |
Natera Risk Indicators
The analysis of Natera's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Natera's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting natera stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Variance | 5.66 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.72 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Natera
The number of cover stories for Natera depends on current market conditions and Natera's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Natera is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Natera's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Natera Short Properties
Natera's future price predictability will typically decrease when Natera's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Natera Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Natera's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natera's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 124.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 968.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Natera to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natera. Anticipated expansion of Natera directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Natera assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Earnings Share (2.29) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.347 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding Natera Inc requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Natera's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Natera's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Natera's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Natera's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Natera should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Natera's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.