Northwest Biotherapeutics OTC Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NWBO Stock | USD 0.29 0.01 3.33% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Northwest Biotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.47. Northwest OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Northwest Biotherapeutics' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the otc stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Northwest Biotherapeutics based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Northwest Biotherapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Northwest Biotherapeutics from the perspective of Northwest Biotherapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Northwest Biotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.47. Northwest Biotherapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 0.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Northwest |
Northwest Biotherapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Northwest price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Northwest using various technical indicators. When you analyze Northwest charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Northwest Biotherapeutics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Northwest Biotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northwest OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northwest Biotherapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Northwest Biotherapeutics OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Northwest Biotherapeutics | Northwest Biotherapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Northwest Biotherapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Northwest Biotherapeutics' OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northwest Biotherapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 5.44, respectively. We have considered Northwest Biotherapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northwest Biotherapeutics otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northwest Biotherapeutics otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.6099 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -8.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0078 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0298 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.4675 |
Predictive Modules for Northwest Biotherapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northwest Biotherapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Northwest Biotherapeutics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Northwest Biotherapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Northwest Biotherapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Northwest Biotherapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Northwest Biotherapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Northwest Biotherapeutics' otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Northwest Biotherapeutics' historical news coverage. Northwest Biotherapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 5.44, respectively. We have considered Northwest Biotherapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Northwest Biotherapeutics is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Northwest Biotherapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Northwest Biotherapeutics OTC Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Northwest Biotherapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Northwest Biotherapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Northwest Biotherapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 5.15 | 1.08 | 0.02 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.29 | 0.29 | 0.00 |
|
Northwest Biotherapeutics Hype Timeline
Northwest Biotherapeutics is now traded for 0.29. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Northwest is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 44.9%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.3%. %. The volatility of related hype on Northwest Biotherapeutics is about 8879.31%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.27. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.06. Northwest Biotherapeutics had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:16 split on the 26th of September 2012. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northwest Biotherapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Northwest Biotherapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Northwest Biotherapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Northwest Biotherapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Northwest Biotherapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Northwest Biotherapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HLOSF | Healios KK | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 0.00 | (6.34) | 30.18 | |
| HNSBF | Hansa Biopharma AB | (0.29) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 36.46 | |
| CYDY | Cytodyn | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.86 | (0.01) | 8.00 | (5.71) | 24.19 | |
| CMVLF | Cellectis SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.71 | |
| PRRUF | Immutep Limited | (0.29) | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 60.76 | |
| CLVLY | Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.34 | 0.01 | 3.55 | (2.55) | 11.55 | |
| PTCHF | PureTech Health plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 3.53 | 0.00 | 7.74 | |
| AVCTF | Avacta Group Plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.03 | (5.13) | 35.79 | |
| FGHQF | Frontage Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| MDCLF | MedinCell SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Northwest Biotherapeutics
For every potential investor in Northwest, whether a beginner or expert, Northwest Biotherapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northwest OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northwest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northwest Biotherapeutics' price trends.Northwest Biotherapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Northwest Biotherapeutics otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Northwest Biotherapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northwest Biotherapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Northwest Biotherapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Northwest Biotherapeutics otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Northwest Biotherapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Northwest Biotherapeutics otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Northwest Biotherapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Northwest Biotherapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Northwest Biotherapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northwest Biotherapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting northwest otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.72 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.81 | |||
| Variance | 33.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 32.17 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Northwest Biotherapeutics
The number of cover stories for Northwest Biotherapeutics depends on current market conditions and Northwest Biotherapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Northwest Biotherapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Northwest Biotherapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Northwest Biotherapeutics Short Properties
Northwest Biotherapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Northwest Biotherapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Northwest Biotherapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Northwest Biotherapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northwest Biotherapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 948.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.2 M |
Other Information on Investing in Northwest OTC Stock
Northwest Biotherapeutics financial ratios help investors to determine whether Northwest OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Northwest with respect to the benefits of owning Northwest Biotherapeutics security.