Newag SA Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NWG Stock | 128.00 0.80 0.63% |
Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Newag SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Newag SA from the perspective of Newag SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Newag SA on the next trading day is expected to be 128.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 90.00. Newag SA after-hype prediction price | PLN 128.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Newag |
Newag SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Newag price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Newag using various technical indicators. When you analyze Newag charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Newag SA Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Newag SA on the next trading day is expected to be 128.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.50, mean absolute percentage error of 4.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 90.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Newag Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Newag SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Newag SA Stock Forecast Pattern
Newag SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Newag SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Newag SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 126.06 and 129.94, respectively. We have considered Newag SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Newag SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Newag SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.8022 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.4767 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0139 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 90.0 |
Predictive Modules for Newag SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Newag SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Newag SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Newag SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Newag SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Newag SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Newag SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Newag SA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Newag SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Newag SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Newag SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.47 | 1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
128.00 | 128.00 | 0.00 |
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Newag SA Hype Timeline
Newag SA is now traded for 128.00on Warsaw Stock Exchange of Poland. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Newag is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.47%. %. The volatility of related hype on Newag SA is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 128.00. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be uncertain. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in manufacturing.Newag SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Newag SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Newag SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Newag SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Newag SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UCG | UniCredit SpA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.23 | 0.11 | 3.51 | (2.09) | 9.31 | |
| ALE | Allegroeu SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.97 | (2.96) | 7.91 | |
| SPL | Santander Bank Polska | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.36 | 0.13 | 2.91 | (2.05) | 9.54 | |
| KGH | KGHM Polska Miedz | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.15 | 0.23 | 6.23 | (5.99) | 19.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for Newag SA
For every potential investor in Newag, whether a beginner or expert, Newag SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Newag Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Newag. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Newag SA's price trends.Newag SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Newag SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Newag SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Newag SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Newag SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Newag SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Newag SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Newag SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Newag SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Newag SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Newag SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Newag SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting newag stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Variance | 4.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.23 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.11 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Newag SA
The number of cover stories for Newag SA depends on current market conditions and Newag SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Newag SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Newag SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Newag Stock Analysis
When running Newag SA's price analysis, check to measure Newag SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Newag SA is operating at the current time. Most of Newag SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Newag SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Newag SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Newag SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.