Nature Wood Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

NWGL Stock   1.23  0.11  9.82%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nature Wood Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.92. Nature Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Nature Wood's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Nature Wood's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Nature Wood fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Nature Wood's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Nature Wood's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Nature Wood and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Nature Wood's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Nature Wood Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Nature Wood's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.31)
Using Nature Wood hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nature Wood Group from the perspective of Nature Wood response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nature Wood Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.92.

Nature Wood after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 1.18  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nature Wood to cross-verify your projections.

Nature Wood Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Nature price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Nature using various technical indicators. When you analyze Nature charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Nature Wood simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Nature Wood Group are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Nature Wood Group prices get older.

Nature Wood Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nature Wood Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nature Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nature Wood's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Nature Wood Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Nature WoodNature Wood Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Nature Wood Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Nature Wood's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nature Wood's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 7.19, respectively. We have considered Nature Wood's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.23
1.23
Expected Value
7.19
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nature Wood stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nature Wood stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.0401
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0077
MADMean absolute deviation0.0487
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0383
SAESum of the absolute errors2.92
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Nature Wood Group forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Nature Wood observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Nature Wood

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nature Wood Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.061.187.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.051.087.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nature Wood. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nature Wood's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nature Wood's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Nature Wood Group.

Nature Wood After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Nature Wood at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nature Wood or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Nature Wood, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Nature Wood Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Nature Wood's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nature Wood's historical news coverage. Nature Wood's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 7.20, respectively. We have considered Nature Wood's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1.23
1.18
After-hype Price
7.20
Upside
Nature Wood is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nature Wood Group is based on 3 months time horizon.

Nature Wood Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Nature Wood is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nature Wood backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nature Wood, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.36 
5.96
  0.04 
  0.01 
2 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1.23
1.18
4.07 
5,960  
Notes

Nature Wood Hype Timeline

Nature Wood Group is now traded for 1.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Nature is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.18. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -4.07%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Nature Wood is about 24833.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.24. About 70.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Nature Wood was now reported as 0.58. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.6. Nature Wood Group had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nature Wood to cross-verify your projections.

Nature Wood Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Nature Wood's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nature Wood's future price movements. Getting to know how Nature Wood's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nature Wood may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AUSTAustin Gold Corp 0.77 29 per month 4.98  0.01  10.17 (9.30) 22.73 
JCTCJewett Cameron Trading(0.13)10 per month 0.00 (0.16) 7.80 (7.66) 23.52 
STAIScanTech AI Systems 0.04 8 per month 0.00 (0.18) 12.65 (13.75) 53.71 
ELBMElectra Battery Materials 0.03 8 per month 0.00 (0.11) 9.47 (9.52) 23.01 
SNESSenesTech 0.11 7 per month 0.00 (0.25) 6.27 (7.61) 19.56 
ASTLAlgoma Steel Group 0.00 8 per month 3.49  0.05  7.21 (6.12) 20.68 
HUDIHuadi International Group(0.59)6 per month 0.00 (0.03) 5.74 (5.26) 15.47 
ITPIT Tech Packaging 0.00 6 per month 0.00 (0.06) 4.55 (4.35) 16.03 
ZKINZK International Group 0.01 5 per month 5.35  0  13.49 (9.04) 30.74 
ODVWZOsisko Development Corp 0.00 7 per month 12.00  0.02  23.53 (21.87) 91.11 

Other Forecasting Options for Nature Wood

For every potential investor in Nature, whether a beginner or expert, Nature Wood's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nature Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nature. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nature Wood's price trends.

Nature Wood Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nature Wood stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nature Wood could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nature Wood by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Nature Wood Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nature Wood stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nature Wood shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nature Wood stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nature Wood Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Nature Wood Risk Indicators

The analysis of Nature Wood's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nature Wood's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nature stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Nature Wood

The number of cover stories for Nature Wood depends on current market conditions and Nature Wood's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Nature Wood is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Nature Wood's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Nature Wood Short Properties

Nature Wood's future price predictability will typically decrease when Nature Wood's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Nature Wood Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Nature Wood's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nature Wood's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding16.6 M
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsM
When determining whether Nature Wood Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze Nature Wood's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Nature Wood's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Nature Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nature Wood to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Paper & Forest Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nature Wood. If investors know Nature will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nature Wood listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.60)
Revenue Per Share
1.247
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.31)
Return On Assets
(0.07)
Return On Equity
(0.69)
The market value of Nature Wood Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nature that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nature Wood's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nature Wood's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nature Wood's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nature Wood's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nature Wood's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nature Wood is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nature Wood's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.