Nexgel Stock Forward View
| NXGL Stock | USD 1.36 0.06 4.23% |
Nexgel Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Nexgel's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Nexgel's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Nexgel fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Nexgel's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 69
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.03) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.28) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.16 | Wall Street Target Price 6 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.08) |
Using Nexgel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nexgel Inc from the perspective of Nexgel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nexgel Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.57. Nexgel after-hype prediction price | USD 1.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nexgel to cross-verify your projections. Nexgel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Nexgel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Nexgel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Nexgel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Nexgel Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Nexgel's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2019-06-30 | Previous Quarter 725 K | Current Value 938 K | Quarterly Volatility 3.2 M |
Nexgel Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nexgel Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nexgel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nexgel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Nexgel Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Nexgel | Nexgel Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Nexgel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Nexgel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nexgel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 7.29, respectively. We have considered Nexgel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nexgel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nexgel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.4047 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0749 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.043 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.5684 |
Predictive Modules for Nexgel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nexgel Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Nexgel After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Nexgel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nexgel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Nexgel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Nexgel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Nexgel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nexgel's historical news coverage. Nexgel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 7.39, respectively. We have considered Nexgel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Nexgel is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nexgel Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Nexgel Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Nexgel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nexgel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nexgel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.73 | 6.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.36 | 1.37 | 0.74 |
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Nexgel Hype Timeline
Nexgel Inc is now traded for 1.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Nexgel is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.37 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.74%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.73%. The volatility of related hype on Nexgel is about 10750.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.32. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 8.69 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.28 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.64 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nexgel to cross-verify your projections.Nexgel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Nexgel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nexgel's future price movements. Getting to know how Nexgel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nexgel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RVP | Retractable Technologies | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.63 | (3.57) | 10.11 | |
| HBIO | Harvard Bioscience | (0.01) | 8 per month | 4.98 | 0.07 | 12.86 | (6.78) | 57.46 | |
| FEMY | Femasys | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 15.00 | (11.11) | 47.42 | |
| GDTC | CytoMed Therapeutics Limited | (0.30) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 6.03 | (10.38) | 31.46 | |
| NXL | Nexalin Technology | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 7.92 | (8.70) | 27.45 | |
| ENLV | Enlivex Therapeutics | (0.12) | 7 per month | 4.29 | 0 | 8.57 | (8.16) | 24.21 | |
| MLSS | Milestone Scientific | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 7.41 | (6.90) | 23.59 | |
| POCI | Precision Optics | 0.06 | 7 per month | 2.30 | 0.07 | 3.68 | (3.55) | 27.89 | |
| MTVA | MetaVia | (0.08) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 11.60 | (20.10) | 79.95 | |
| IINN | Inspira Technologies Oxy | (0.07) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 6.86 | (6.96) | 24.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for Nexgel
For every potential investor in Nexgel, whether a beginner or expert, Nexgel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nexgel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nexgel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nexgel's price trends.Nexgel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nexgel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nexgel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nexgel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Nexgel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nexgel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nexgel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nexgel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nexgel Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Nexgel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Nexgel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nexgel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nexgel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.94 | |||
| Variance | 35.32 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Nexgel
The number of cover stories for Nexgel depends on current market conditions and Nexgel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Nexgel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Nexgel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Nexgel Short Properties
Nexgel's future price predictability will typically decrease when Nexgel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Nexgel Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Nexgel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nexgel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nexgel to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nexgel. Anticipated expansion of Nexgel directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Nexgel assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Earnings Share (0.40) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate Nexgel Inc using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Nexgel's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Nexgel's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Nexgel's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Nexgel should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Nexgel's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.