NXP Semiconductors Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NXPI Stock | USD 221.49 5.37 2.37% |
NXP Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of NXP Semiconductors' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 5th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of NXP Semiconductors' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.2822 | EPS Estimate Current Year 13.848 | EPS Estimate Next Year 16.6667 | Wall Street Target Price 264.825 |
Using NXP Semiconductors hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NXP Semiconductors NV from the perspective of NXP Semiconductors response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards NXP Semiconductors using NXP Semiconductors' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards NXP using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of NXP Semiconductors' stock price.
NXP Semiconductors Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in NXP Semiconductors' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards NXP. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of NXP Semiconductors stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 216.293 | Short Percent 0.0364 | Short Ratio 3.04 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.5 M | 50 Day MA 224.0646 |
NXP Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NXP Semiconductors NV on the next trading day is expected to be 221.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 237.27.NXP Semiconductors Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to NXP Semiconductors' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in NXP. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding NXP can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around NXP Semiconductors NV. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of NXP Semiconductors' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about NXP Semiconductors.
NXP Semiconductors Implied Volatility | 0.51 |
NXP Semiconductors' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NXP Semiconductors NV stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NXP Semiconductors' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NXP Semiconductors stock will not fluctuate a lot when NXP Semiconductors' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NXP Semiconductors NV on the next trading day is expected to be 221.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 237.27. NXP Semiconductors after-hype prediction price | USD 226.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NXP Semiconductors to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current NXP contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that NXP Semiconductors NV will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0319% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With NXP Semiconductors trading at USD 221.49, that is roughly USD 0.0706 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating NXP Semiconductors' daily price movement you should consider acquiring NXP Semiconductors NV options at the current volatility level of 0.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 NXP Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast NXP Semiconductors' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in NXP Semiconductors' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for NXP Semiconductors stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current NXP Semiconductors' open interest, investors have to compare it to NXP Semiconductors' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of NXP Semiconductors is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in NXP. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
NXP Semiconductors Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NXP price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NXP using various technical indicators. When you analyze NXP charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NXP Semiconductors Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NXP Semiconductors NV on the next trading day is expected to be 221.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.95, mean absolute percentage error of 30.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 237.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NXP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NXP Semiconductors' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NXP Semiconductors Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NXP Semiconductors | NXP Semiconductors Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
NXP Semiconductors Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NXP Semiconductors' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NXP Semiconductors' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 218.96 and 224.01, respectively. We have considered NXP Semiconductors' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NXP Semiconductors stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NXP Semiconductors stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.6864 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2973 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.9544 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0178 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 237.265 |
Predictive Modules for NXP Semiconductors
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NXP Semiconductors. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NXP Semiconductors After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NXP Semiconductors at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NXP Semiconductors or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NXP Semiconductors, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NXP Semiconductors Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NXP Semiconductors' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NXP Semiconductors' historical news coverage. NXP Semiconductors' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 223.82 and 228.88, respectively. We have considered NXP Semiconductors' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NXP Semiconductors is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NXP Semiconductors is based on 3 months time horizon.
NXP Semiconductors Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NXP Semiconductors is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NXP Semiconductors backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NXP Semiconductors, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 2.53 | 0.51 | 0.72 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
221.49 | 226.35 | 0.22 |
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NXP Semiconductors Hype Timeline
NXP Semiconductors is now traded for 221.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.51, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.72. NXP is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 226.35. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 104.98%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.22%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on NXP Semiconductors is about 73.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 222.21. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.21. NXP Semiconductors recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.94. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NXP Semiconductors to cross-verify your projections.NXP Semiconductors Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NXP Semiconductors' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NXP Semiconductors' future price movements. Getting to know how NXP Semiconductors' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NXP Semiconductors may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | 1.35 | 8 per month | 2.80 | 0.03 | 4.37 | (4.59) | 11.04 | |
| WDC | Western Digital | 8.57 | 10 per month | 3.67 | 0.21 | 8.75 | (7.18) | 26.89 | |
| STX | Seagate Technology PLC | 47.74 | 8 per month | 3.84 | 0.15 | 6.87 | (7.19) | 27.85 | |
| ASX | ASE Industrial Holding | 0.08 | 8 per month | 2.07 | 0.14 | 3.57 | (3.59) | 11.51 | |
| EA | Electronic Arts | (0.23) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 0.31 | (0.28) | 1.60 | |
| XYZ | Block Inc | (0.78) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.79 | (5.28) | 14.15 | |
| GRMN | Garmin | (2.01) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.62 | (2.42) | 9.20 | |
| ZS | Zscaler | (2.90) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.33) | 2.78 | (4.69) | 16.38 | |
| UI | Ubiquiti Networks | (15.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.19 | (4.03) | 21.80 | |
| TTWO | Take Two Interactive Software | (2.38) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.27 | (4.35) | 10.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for NXP Semiconductors
For every potential investor in NXP, whether a beginner or expert, NXP Semiconductors' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NXP Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NXP. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NXP Semiconductors' price trends.NXP Semiconductors Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NXP Semiconductors stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NXP Semiconductors could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NXP Semiconductors by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NXP Semiconductors Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NXP Semiconductors stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NXP Semiconductors shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NXP Semiconductors stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NXP Semiconductors NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 221.49 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 221.49 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.69) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (5.37) |
NXP Semiconductors Risk Indicators
The analysis of NXP Semiconductors' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NXP Semiconductors' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nxp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.48 | |||
| Variance | 6.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.61 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.07) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NXP Semiconductors
The number of cover stories for NXP Semiconductors depends on current market conditions and NXP Semiconductors' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NXP Semiconductors is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NXP Semiconductors' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NXP Semiconductors Short Properties
NXP Semiconductors' future price predictability will typically decrease when NXP Semiconductors' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NXP Semiconductors NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NXP Semiconductors' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NXP Semiconductors' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 254.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NXP Semiconductors to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Is there potential for Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment market expansion? Will NXP introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NXP Semiconductors. Anticipated expansion of NXP directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about NXP Semiconductors listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Dividend Share 4.056 | Earnings Share 7.94 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.072 |
The market value of NXP Semiconductors is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NXP that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NXP Semiconductors' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NXP Semiconductors' true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because NXP Semiconductors' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NXP Semiconductors' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between NXP Semiconductors' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding NXP Semiconductors should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, NXP Semiconductors' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.