Oculis Holding Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| OCS Stock | 26.72 0.68 2.61% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Oculis Holding AG on the next trading day is expected to be 26.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.82. Oculis Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Oculis Holding's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.44) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.81) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.82) | Wall Street Target Price 44.7075 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.41) |
Using Oculis Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oculis Holding AG from the perspective of Oculis Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Oculis Holding AG Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Oculis Holding's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Oculis. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Oculis can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Oculis Holding AG. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Oculis Holding AG on the next trading day is expected to be 26.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.82.
Oculis Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 25.58 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oculis Holding to cross-verify your projections. Oculis Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Oculis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oculis using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oculis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Oculis Holding Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Oculis Holding AG on the next trading day is expected to be 26.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oculis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oculis Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Oculis Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Oculis Holding | Oculis Holding Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Oculis Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Oculis Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oculis Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.81 and 29.63, respectively. We have considered Oculis Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oculis Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oculis Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.6803 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1407 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4546 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0212 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.82 |
Predictive Modules for Oculis Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oculis Holding AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oculis Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oculis Holding After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Oculis Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oculis Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Oculis Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Oculis Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Oculis Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oculis Holding's historical news coverage. Oculis Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.69 and 28.47, respectively. We have considered Oculis Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Oculis Holding is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oculis Holding AG is based on 3 months time horizon.
Oculis Holding Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oculis Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oculis Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oculis Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 2.91 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
26.72 | 25.58 | 1.77 |
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Oculis Holding Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Oculis Holding AG is traded for 26.72. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.18, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Oculis is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 25.58. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -1.77%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Oculis Holding is about 1865.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.78. About 41.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.74. Oculis Holding AG had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oculis Holding to cross-verify your projections.Oculis Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Oculis Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oculis Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Oculis Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oculis Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| XNCR | Xencor Inc | (0.27) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.05 | (5.23) | 16.84 | |
| KOD | Kodiak Sciences | (0.82) | 10 per month | 4.00 | 0.16 | 11.20 | (6.81) | 39.40 | |
| ANAB | AnaptysBio | (1.31) | 8 per month | 3.56 | 0.12 | 6.11 | (5.26) | 20.41 | |
| URGN | UroGen Pharma | 0.59 | 6 per month | 3.96 | 0.05 | 7.30 | (5.50) | 36.24 | |
| PHAT | Phathom Pharmaceuticals | 0.16 | 9 per month | 3.43 | 0.03 | 7.68 | (4.63) | 24.16 | |
| NRIX | Nurix Therapeutics | (0.1) | 10 per month | 2.46 | 0.23 | 9.23 | (4.80) | 27.63 | |
| NKTR | Nektar Therapeutics | 2.74 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 7.00 | (7.77) | 20.50 | |
| SANA | Sana Biotechnology | 0.14 | 8 per month | 4.82 | 0.01 | 12.59 | (8.77) | 25.63 | |
| BBOT | BridgeBio Oncology Therapeutics | 0.48 | 10 per month | 3.40 | (0) | 5.51 | (5.93) | 27.79 | |
| MNMD | Mind Medicine | (0.05) | 4 per month | 3.40 | 0.08 | 6.21 | (4.21) | 28.06 |
Other Forecasting Options for Oculis Holding
For every potential investor in Oculis, whether a beginner or expert, Oculis Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oculis Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oculis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oculis Holding's price trends.Oculis Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oculis Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oculis Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oculis Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Oculis Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oculis Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oculis Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oculis Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oculis Holding AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Oculis Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Oculis Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oculis Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oculis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.81 | |||
| Variance | 7.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Oculis Holding
The number of cover stories for Oculis Holding depends on current market conditions and Oculis Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oculis Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oculis Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Oculis Holding Short Properties
Oculis Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when Oculis Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Oculis Holding AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Oculis Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oculis Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 40.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 98.7 M |
Additional Tools for Oculis Stock Analysis
When running Oculis Holding's price analysis, check to measure Oculis Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oculis Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Oculis Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oculis Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oculis Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oculis Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.