OIL EQUIPMENT Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

OEPIX Fund

USD 158.49 5.07 3.30%

Triple Exponential Smoothing is applied to Oil Equipment Services's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. These values update automatically with each new closing price. AIC measures relative model quality — lower AIC values indicate a better-fitting model. The Triple Exponential Smoothing model projects OIL EQUIPMENT at 159.44 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This Triple Exponential Smoothing output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.

Triple exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters method) for OIL EQUIPMENT extends the double exponential model by adding a seasonality component. It simultaneously estimates the level, trend, and periodic pattern in Oil Equipment Services price series.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of April

Over a 90-day horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing model forecasts OIL EQUIPMENT at 159.44 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 2.85 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 168.11 .

This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of OIL EQUIPMENT's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest OIL EQUIPMENT

OIL EQUIPMENT Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

This forecast for OIL EQUIPMENT frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The projected band runs from roughly 156.76 on the downside to about 162.12 on the upside. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.

Market Value

158.49

156.76

Downside

159.44

Expected Value

162.12

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Triple Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for OIL EQUIPMENT mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	Huge
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	-0.6027
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	2.8494
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0212
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	168.1145

This model is designed for OIL EQUIPMENT price data that exhibits both a directional trend and recurring seasonal patterns. If the underlying series lacks seasonality, simpler models may produce tighter forecasts with fewer parameters. As with all exponential smoothing methods, recent observations carry the greatest weight in the forecast.

Other Forecasting Options for OIL EQUIPMENT

The distribution of OIL EQUIPMENT's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in OIL EQUIPMENT's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of OIL EQUIPMENT's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price foreshadow trend changes in OIL.

OIL EQUIPMENT Related Equities

These stocks within the Trading--Leveraged Equity space are often compared to OIL EQUIPMENT by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Growth rate gaps between OIL EQUIPMENT and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.

BlackRock Science Technology Technology Ultrasector Profund Franklin Biotechnology Discovery Towpath Technology Global Technology Portfolio American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup SentinelOne CVS Health Corp Chevron Corp The Home Depot International Business Machines

Risk & Return

Correlation

OIL EQUIPMENT Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for OIL EQUIPMENT mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in OIL EQUIPMENT. Median and Typical Price smooth out intraday extremes, providing a cleaner reference level for evaluating OIL EQUIPMENT sessions. Persistent divergence between momentum indicators and price often precedes trend reversals in OIL EQUIPMENT.

	Rate Of Daily Change	1.03
	Day Median Price	158.49
	Day Typical Price	158.49
	Price Action Indicator	2.54
	Period Momentum Indicator	5.07
	Relative Strength Index	66.15

OIL EQUIPMENT Risk Indicators

Assessing OIL EQUIPMENT's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for oil mutual fund. The level of risk embedded in OIL EQUIPMENT's feeds directly into exposure calibration. Comparing OIL EQUIPMENT's downside variance to total variance reveals whether the risk profile is skewed toward losses. These risk measures complement the price analysis above by framing how dispersed recent returns have been.

	Mean Deviation	2.1
	Semi Deviation	2.02
	Standard Deviation	2.65
	Variance	7.03
	Downside Variance	6.76
	Semi Variance	4.09
	Expected Short fall	-2.26

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average