Olstein All Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

OFAFX Fund  USD 28.46  0.07  0.25%   
Olstein Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Olstein All's mutual fund price is slightly above 63. This indicates that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Olstein, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 63

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Olstein All's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Olstein All Cap, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Olstein All hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Olstein All Cap from the perspective of Olstein All response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Olstein All Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 28.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.56.

Olstein All after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 39.59  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Olstein All to cross-verify your projections.

Olstein All Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Olstein price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Olstein using various technical indicators. When you analyze Olstein charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Olstein All polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Olstein All Cap as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Olstein All Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Olstein All Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 28.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Olstein Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Olstein All's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Olstein All Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Olstein All  Olstein All Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Olstein All Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Olstein All's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Olstein All's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.06 and 29.13, respectively. We have considered Olstein All's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
28.46
28.10
Expected Value
29.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Olstein All mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Olstein All mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.1308
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2994
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0114
SAESum of the absolute errors18.5604
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Olstein All historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Olstein All

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Olstein All Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.6139.5940.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.6132.0433.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
27.1728.1229.06
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Olstein All. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Olstein All's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Olstein All's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Olstein All Cap.

Olstein All After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Olstein All at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Olstein All or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Olstein All, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Olstein All Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Olstein All's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Olstein All's historical news coverage. Olstein All's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.61 and 40.63, respectively. We have considered Olstein All's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
28.46
39.59
After-hype Price
40.63
Upside
Olstein All is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Olstein All Cap is based on 3 months time horizon.

Olstein All Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Olstein All is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Olstein All backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Olstein All, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.26 
1.04
  11.13 
  5.81 
3 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
28.46
39.59
39.11 
2.43  
Notes

Olstein All Hype Timeline

Olstein All Cap is now traded for 28.46. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 11.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -5.81. Olstein is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 39.59 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 2.43%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 39.11%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Olstein All is about 4.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.65. Debt can assist Olstein All until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Olstein All's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Olstein All Cap sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Olstein to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Olstein All's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Olstein All to cross-verify your projections.

Olstein All Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Olstein All's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Olstein All's future price movements. Getting to know how Olstein All's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Olstein All may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Olstein All

For every potential investor in Olstein, whether a beginner or expert, Olstein All's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Olstein Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Olstein. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Olstein All's price trends.

Olstein All Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Olstein All mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Olstein All could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Olstein All by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Olstein All Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Olstein All mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Olstein All shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Olstein All mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Olstein All Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Olstein All Risk Indicators

The analysis of Olstein All's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Olstein All's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting olstein mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Olstein All

The number of cover stories for Olstein All depends on current market conditions and Olstein All's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Olstein All is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Olstein All's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Olstein Mutual Fund

Olstein All financial ratios help investors to determine whether Olstein Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Olstein with respect to the benefits of owning Olstein All security.
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