Oragenics Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| OGEN Stock | USD 0.84 0.03 3.70% |
Oragenics Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of Oragenics' share price is approaching 42. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Oragenics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Oragenics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oragenics from the perspective of Oragenics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oragenics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.71. Oragenics after-hype prediction price | USD 0.84 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Oragenics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Oragenics price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oragenics using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oragenics charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Oragenics Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oragenics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.71.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oragenics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oragenics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Oragenics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Oragenics | Oragenics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Oragenics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Oragenics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oragenics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.89, respectively. We have considered Oragenics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oragenics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oragenics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0066 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.029 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0319 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.71 |
Predictive Modules for Oragenics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oragenics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oragenics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oragenics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Oragenics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oragenics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Oragenics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Oragenics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Oragenics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oragenics' historical news coverage. Oragenics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.04 and 4.89, respectively. We have considered Oragenics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Oragenics is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oragenics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Oragenics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oragenics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oragenics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oragenics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.54 | 4.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.84 | 0.84 | 0.00 |
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Oragenics Hype Timeline
Oragenics is now traded for 0.84. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Oragenics is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.54%. %. The volatility of related hype on Oragenics is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.84. About 13.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.34. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Oragenics recorded earning per share (EPS) of 48.21. The entity last dividend was issued on the 22nd of January 2018. The firm had 1:30 split on the 3rd of June 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oragenics to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Oragenics Stock, please use our How to Invest in Oragenics guide.Oragenics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Oragenics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oragenics' future price movements. Getting to know how Oragenics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oragenics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AIM | AIM ImmunoTech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 7.69 | (10.32) | 29.72 | |
| KALA | Kala Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 12.28 | (10.77) | 59.48 | |
| ENSC | Ensysce Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 5.94 | (10.78) | 23.86 | |
| SNGX | Soligenix | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 7.03 | (6.52) | 30.10 | |
| QLGN | Qualigen Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.81 | 0.07 | 11.36 | (10.32) | 11.73 | |
| CANF | Can Fite Biopharma | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 10.40 | (8.59) | 38.42 | |
| XBIO | Xenetic Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.76 | (6.84) | 18.79 | |
| CNSP | CNS Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.22 | (7.57) | 26.44 | |
| KZIA | Kazia Therapeutics Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 10.71 | 0.03 | 14.69 | (18.36) | 78.79 | |
| TTNP | Titan Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Oragenics
For every potential investor in Oragenics, whether a beginner or expert, Oragenics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oragenics Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oragenics. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oragenics' price trends.Oragenics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oragenics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oragenics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oragenics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Oragenics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oragenics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oragenics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oragenics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oragenics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Oragenics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Oragenics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oragenics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oragenics stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.05 | |||
| Variance | 16.4 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Oragenics
The number of cover stories for Oragenics depends on current market conditions and Oragenics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oragenics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oragenics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Oragenics Short Properties
Oragenics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Oragenics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Oragenics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Oragenics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oragenics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 864.8 K |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oragenics to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Oragenics Stock, please use our How to Invest in Oragenics guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Oragenics diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Oragenics. Anticipated expansion of Oragenics directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Oragenics data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate Oragenics using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Oragenics' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Oragenics' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Oragenics' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Oragenics should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Oragenics' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.