Obrascon Huarte Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

OHLA Stock   0.35  0.01  2.78%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Obrascon Huarte Lain on the next trading day is expected to be 0.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.52. Obrascon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Obrascon Huarte stock prices and determine the direction of Obrascon Huarte Lain's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Obrascon Huarte's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of Obrascon Huarte's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Obrascon Huarte's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Obrascon Huarte Lain, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Obrascon Huarte hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Obrascon Huarte Lain from the perspective of Obrascon Huarte response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Obrascon Huarte Lain on the next trading day is expected to be 0.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.52.

Obrascon Huarte after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 0.35  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Obrascon Huarte to cross-verify your projections.

Obrascon Huarte Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Obrascon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Obrascon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Obrascon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Obrascon Huarte is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Obrascon Huarte Lain value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Obrascon Huarte Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Obrascon Huarte Lain on the next trading day is expected to be 0.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.52.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Obrascon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Obrascon Huarte's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Obrascon Huarte Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Obrascon HuarteObrascon Huarte Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Obrascon Huarte Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Obrascon Huarte's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Obrascon Huarte's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 3.03, respectively. We have considered Obrascon Huarte's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.35
0.32
Expected Value
3.03
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Obrascon Huarte stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Obrascon Huarte stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.26
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0086
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0223
SAESum of the absolute errors0.5247
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Obrascon Huarte Lain. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Obrascon Huarte. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Obrascon Huarte

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Obrascon Huarte Lain. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.020.353.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.020.323.03
Details

Obrascon Huarte After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Obrascon Huarte at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Obrascon Huarte or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Obrascon Huarte, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Obrascon Huarte Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Obrascon Huarte's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Obrascon Huarte's historical news coverage. Obrascon Huarte's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.02 and 3.06, respectively. We have considered Obrascon Huarte's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.35
0.35
After-hype Price
3.06
Upside
Obrascon Huarte is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Obrascon Huarte Lain is based on 3 months time horizon.

Obrascon Huarte Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Obrascon Huarte is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Obrascon Huarte backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Obrascon Huarte, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.40 
2.71
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.35
0.35
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Obrascon Huarte Hype Timeline

Obrascon Huarte Lain is now traded for 0.35on Madrid Exchange of Spain. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Obrascon is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.4%. %. The volatility of related hype on Obrascon Huarte is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.35. About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.47. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Obrascon Huarte Lain last dividend was issued on the 4th of July 2016. The entity had 1721:1529 split on the 7th of June 2021. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Obrascon Huarte to cross-verify your projections.

Obrascon Huarte Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Obrascon Huarte's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Obrascon Huarte's future price movements. Getting to know how Obrascon Huarte's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Obrascon Huarte may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GSJGrupo Empresarial San 0.00 0 per month 1.15  0.09  2.92 (2.10) 7.97 
EZEGrupo Ezentis SA 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.1) 2.53 (2.42) 25.08 
ENRSEnerside Energy SA 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.11) 11.32 (7.37) 30.97 
MDFDuro Felguera 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.15) 5.56 (5.26) 16.37 
TLGOTalgo SA 0.00 0 per month 1.30  0.08  3.18 (2.38) 13.73 
CLRCLERHP Estructuras SA 0.00 0 per month 2.16  0.18  6.88 (3.37) 24.06 
AZKAzkoyen 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.1) 1.87 (1.39) 5.50 
CASHProsegur Cash SA 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.19) 1.61 (3.08) 7.52 
GAMGeneral de Alquiler 0.00 0 per month 1.47  0.01  4.76 (2.42) 12.35 
RBTRobot SA 0.00 0 per month 0.85  0.02  2.67 (2.01) 8.06 

Other Forecasting Options for Obrascon Huarte

For every potential investor in Obrascon, whether a beginner or expert, Obrascon Huarte's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Obrascon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Obrascon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Obrascon Huarte's price trends.

Obrascon Huarte Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Obrascon Huarte stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Obrascon Huarte could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Obrascon Huarte by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Obrascon Huarte Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Obrascon Huarte stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Obrascon Huarte shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Obrascon Huarte stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Obrascon Huarte Lain entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Obrascon Huarte Risk Indicators

The analysis of Obrascon Huarte's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Obrascon Huarte's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting obrascon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Obrascon Huarte

The number of cover stories for Obrascon Huarte depends on current market conditions and Obrascon Huarte's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Obrascon Huarte is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Obrascon Huarte's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Obrascon Stock

Obrascon Huarte financial ratios help investors to determine whether Obrascon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Obrascon with respect to the benefits of owning Obrascon Huarte security.