Optimum Large Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| OILGX Fund | USD 25.14 0.07 0.28% |
Optimum Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Optimum Large's share price is at 51. This indicates that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Optimum Large, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Optimum Large hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Optimum Large Cap from the perspective of Optimum Large response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Optimum Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 25.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.95. Optimum Large after-hype prediction price | USD 25.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Optimum |
Optimum Large Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Optimum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Optimum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Optimum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Optimum Large Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Optimum Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 25.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Optimum Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Optimum Large's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Optimum Large Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Optimum Large | Optimum Large Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Optimum Large Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Optimum Large's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Optimum Large's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.14 and 26.14, respectively. We have considered Optimum Large's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Optimum Large mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Optimum Large mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.4967 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0042 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1825 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.95 |
Predictive Modules for Optimum Large
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Optimum Large Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Optimum Large After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Optimum Large at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Optimum Large or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Optimum Large, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Optimum Large Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Optimum Large's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Optimum Large's historical news coverage. Optimum Large's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.14 and 26.14, respectively. We have considered Optimum Large's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Optimum Large is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Optimum Large Cap is based on 3 months time horizon.
Optimum Large Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Optimum Large is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Optimum Large backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Optimum Large, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.14 | 25.14 | 0.00 |
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Optimum Large Hype Timeline
Optimum Large Cap is now traded for 25.14. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Optimum is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Optimum Large is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.14. The company last dividend was issued on the 12th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Optimum Large to cross-verify your projections.Optimum Large Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Optimum Large's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Optimum Large's future price movements. Getting to know how Optimum Large's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Optimum Large may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RYCOX | Nasdaq 100 Fund Class | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | 0.04 | 1.50 | (2.06) | 9.32 | |
| PKSAX | Virtus Kar Small Cap | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.59 | 0.08 | 2.07 | (1.42) | 4.10 | |
| HSVRX | Harbor Small Cap | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.80 | 0.14 | 2.47 | (1.64) | 5.70 | |
| CHTTX | Amg Managers Fairpointe | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.26 | 0.15 | 2.12 | (1.02) | 17.08 | |
| FCVSX | Fidelity Vertible Securities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.91 | 0.03 | 1.57 | (1.50) | 3.95 | |
| ACINX | Columbia Acorn International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.75 | 0.06 | 1.65 | (1.49) | 4.90 | |
| NOMIX | Northern Mid Cap | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.57 | 0.13 | 1.84 | (1.36) | 7.72 |
Other Forecasting Options for Optimum Large
For every potential investor in Optimum, whether a beginner or expert, Optimum Large's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Optimum Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Optimum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Optimum Large's price trends.Optimum Large Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Optimum Large mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Optimum Large could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Optimum Large by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Optimum Large Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Optimum Large mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Optimum Large shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Optimum Large mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Optimum Large Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.14 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.14 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.15 |
Optimum Large Risk Indicators
The analysis of Optimum Large's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Optimum Large's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting optimum mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7237 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Variance | 1.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Optimum Large
The number of cover stories for Optimum Large depends on current market conditions and Optimum Large's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Optimum Large is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Optimum Large's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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Other Information on Investing in Optimum Mutual Fund
Optimum Large financial ratios help investors to determine whether Optimum Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Optimum with respect to the benefits of owning Optimum Large security.
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