Oil Refineries Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

OILRF Stock  USD 0.30  0.10  25.00%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oil Refineries on the next trading day is expected to be 0.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.62. Oil Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Oil Refineries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Oil Refineries' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Oil Refineries' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Oil Refineries and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Oil Refineries' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Oil Refineries, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Oil Refineries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oil Refineries from the perspective of Oil Refineries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oil Refineries on the next trading day is expected to be 0.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.62.

Oil Refineries after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.3  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oil Refineries to cross-verify your projections.

Oil Refineries Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Oil price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oil using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oil charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Oil Refineries simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Oil Refineries are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Oil Refineries prices get older.

Oil Refineries Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oil Refineries on the next trading day is expected to be 0.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oil Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oil Refineries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Oil Refineries Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Oil RefineriesOil Refineries Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Oil Refineries Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Oil Refineries' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oil Refineries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 8.94, respectively. We have considered Oil Refineries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.30
0.30
Expected Value
8.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oil Refineries pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oil Refineries pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.8975
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0013
MADMean absolute deviation0.0103
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0347
SAESum of the absolute errors0.62
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Oil Refineries forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Oil Refineries observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Oil Refineries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oil Refineries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.020.308.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.010.268.90
Details

Oil Refineries After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Oil Refineries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oil Refineries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Oil Refineries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Oil Refineries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Oil Refineries' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oil Refineries' historical news coverage. Oil Refineries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.02 and 8.94, respectively. We have considered Oil Refineries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.30
0.30
After-hype Price
8.94
Upside
Oil Refineries is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oil Refineries is based on 3 months time horizon.

Oil Refineries Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oil Refineries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oil Refineries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oil Refineries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.87 
8.64
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.30
0.30
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Oil Refineries Hype Timeline

Oil Refineries is now traded for 0.30. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Oil is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.87%. %. The volatility of related hype on Oil Refineries is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.30. About 39.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.57. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Oil Refineries last dividend was issued on the 18th of November 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oil Refineries to cross-verify your projections.

Oil Refineries Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Oil Refineries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oil Refineries' future price movements. Getting to know how Oil Refineries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oil Refineries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SOGFFStrategic Oil and 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
AOIFFAfrica Oil Corp 0.00 0 per month 1.56  0.05  3.28 (3.08) 8.84 
IRPSYIRPC PCL ADR 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
CRLFFCardinal Energy 0.00 0 per month 1.71  0.10  3.49 (2.90) 8.96 
BWEFFBW Energy Limited 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.04) 1.05 (0.83) 27.62 
KELTFKelt Exploration 0.00 0 per month 2.31  0.10  7.50 (4.55) 18.62 
COPJFCooper Energy Limited 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.13  0.00  0.00  14,647 
DALXFSpartan Delta Corp 0.00 0 per month 1.90  0.25  4.84 (3.58) 17.62 
KRNGFKaroon Energy 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.02) 2.80 (0.88) 23.09 
HNTIFHunting PLC 0.00 0 per month 1.42  0.09  7.11 (3.43) 19.82 

Other Forecasting Options for Oil Refineries

For every potential investor in Oil, whether a beginner or expert, Oil Refineries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oil Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oil. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oil Refineries' price trends.

Oil Refineries Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oil Refineries pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oil Refineries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oil Refineries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Oil Refineries Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oil Refineries pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oil Refineries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oil Refineries pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Oil Refineries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Oil Refineries Risk Indicators

The analysis of Oil Refineries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oil Refineries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oil pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Oil Refineries

The number of cover stories for Oil Refineries depends on current market conditions and Oil Refineries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oil Refineries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oil Refineries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Oil Pink Sheet

Oil Refineries financial ratios help investors to determine whether Oil Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Oil with respect to the benefits of owning Oil Refineries security.