MicroSectorsTM Oil Etf Forward View - Simple Regression
| OILU Etf | USD 36.13 2.04 5.98% |
MicroSectorsTM Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of MicroSectorsTM Oil's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using MicroSectorsTM Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MicroSectorsTM Oil Gas from the perspective of MicroSectorsTM Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of MicroSectorsTM Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 30.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 129.26. MicroSectorsTM Oil after-hype prediction price | USD 36.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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MicroSectorsTM Oil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MicroSectorsTM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MicroSectorsTM using various technical indicators. When you analyze MicroSectorsTM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MicroSectorsTM Oil Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of MicroSectorsTM Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 30.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.08, mean absolute percentage error of 6.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 129.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MicroSectorsTM Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MicroSectorsTM Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MicroSectorsTM Oil Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MicroSectorsTM Oil | MicroSectorsTM Oil Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
MicroSectorsTM Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MicroSectorsTM Oil's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MicroSectorsTM Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.72 and 34.79, respectively. We have considered MicroSectorsTM Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MicroSectorsTM Oil etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MicroSectorsTM Oil etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.8076 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0848 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0806 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 129.2555 |
Predictive Modules for MicroSectorsTM Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MicroSectorsTM Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MicroSectorsTM Oil After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MicroSectorsTM Oil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MicroSectorsTM Oil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of MicroSectorsTM Oil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MicroSectorsTM Oil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MicroSectorsTM Oil's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MicroSectorsTM Oil's historical news coverage. MicroSectorsTM Oil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 32.13 and 40.21, respectively. We have considered MicroSectorsTM Oil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MicroSectorsTM Oil is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MicroSectorsTM Oil Gas is based on 3 months time horizon.
MicroSectorsTM Oil Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as MicroSectorsTM Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MicroSectorsTM Oil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MicroSectorsTM Oil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.73 | 4.04 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
36.13 | 36.17 | 0.11 |
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MicroSectorsTM Oil Hype Timeline
MicroSectorsTM Oil Gas is now traded for 36.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. MicroSectorsTM is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 36.17 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.73%. The volatility of related hype on MicroSectorsTM Oil is about 4488.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 36.20. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MicroSectorsTM Oil to cross-verify your projections.MicroSectorsTM Oil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MicroSectorsTM Oil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MicroSectorsTM Oil's future price movements. Getting to know how MicroSectorsTM Oil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MicroSectorsTM Oil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DWMF | WisdomTree International Multifactor | 0.13 | 1 per month | 0.35 | 0.07 | 0.99 | (0.90) | 2.89 | |
| RFEM | First Trust RiverFront | 0.37 | 1 per month | 0.48 | 0.05 | 1.52 | (1.06) | 3.02 | |
| BDRY | Breakwave Dry Bulk | 0.07 | 2 per month | 2.08 | 0.14 | 4.49 | (3.99) | 12.30 | |
| BLDG | Cambria ETF Trust | 0.30 | 2 per month | 0.34 | (0.04) | 0.93 | (0.82) | 2.03 | |
| SSXU | Day HaganNed Davis | 0.04 | 2 per month | 0.57 | 0.06 | 1.06 | (1.16) | 3.10 | |
| CSNR | Cohen Steers Natural | 0.27 | 1 per month | 1.17 | 0.15 | 1.63 | (1.59) | 5.78 | |
| KNO | Investment Managers Series | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.64 | 0.08 | 1.32 | (1.26) | 3.07 | |
| COPP | Sprott Copper Miners | (0.15) | 5 per month | 2.79 | 0.18 | 4.53 | (4.52) | 14.20 | |
| FLCV | Federated Hermes ETF | (0.08) | 1 per month | 0.45 | 0.07 | 1.62 | (0.94) | 3.34 | |
| IBBQ | Invesco Nasdaq Biotechnology | (0.05) | 3 per month | 0.83 | 0.08 | 2.40 | (1.58) | 5.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for MicroSectorsTM Oil
For every potential investor in MicroSectorsTM, whether a beginner or expert, MicroSectorsTM Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MicroSectorsTM Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MicroSectorsTM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MicroSectorsTM Oil's price trends.MicroSectorsTM Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MicroSectorsTM Oil etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MicroSectorsTM Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MicroSectorsTM Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MicroSectorsTM Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MicroSectorsTM Oil etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MicroSectorsTM Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MicroSectorsTM Oil etf market strength indicators, traders can identify MicroSectorsTM Oil Gas entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 8664.95 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.102703 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.06 | |||
| Day Median Price | 35.52 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 35.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.64 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.04 |
MicroSectorsTM Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of MicroSectorsTM Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MicroSectorsTM Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting microsectorstm etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.19 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.95 | |||
| Variance | 15.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.07 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MicroSectorsTM Oil
The number of cover stories for MicroSectorsTM Oil depends on current market conditions and MicroSectorsTM Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MicroSectorsTM Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MicroSectorsTM Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MicroSectorsTM Oil to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
The market value of MicroSectorsTM Oil Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MicroSectorsTM that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MicroSectorsTM Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MicroSectorsTM Oil's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because MicroSectorsTM Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MicroSectorsTM Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between MicroSectorsTM Oil's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding MicroSectorsTM Oil should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, MicroSectorsTM Oil's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.