Oil States Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| OIS Stock | USD 8.88 0.40 4.72% |
Oil Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Oil States' share price is above 70 at this time. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Oil, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.289 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1567 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.305 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.455 | Wall Street Target Price 8.5 |
Using Oil States hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oil States International from the perspective of Oil States response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Oil States using Oil States' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Oil using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Oil States' stock price.
Oil States Short Interest
An investor who is long Oil States may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Oil States and may potentially protect profits, hedge Oil States with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 5.7951 | Short Percent 0.0217 | Short Ratio 1.42 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.4 M | 50 Day MA 7.2236 |
Oil Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oil States International on the next trading day is expected to be 8.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.97.Oil States International Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Oil States' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Oil. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Oil can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Oil States International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Oil States' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Oil States.
Oil States Implied Volatility | 1.3 |
Oil States' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Oil States International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Oil States' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Oil States stock will not fluctuate a lot when Oil States' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oil States International on the next trading day is expected to be 8.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.97. Oil States after-hype prediction price | USD 8.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oil States to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Oil Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Oil States' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Oil States' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Oil States stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Oil States' open interest, investors have to compare it to Oil States' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Oil States is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Oil. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Oil States Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Oil price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oil using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oil charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Oil States Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oil States International on the next trading day is expected to be 8.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oil Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oil States' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Oil States Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Oil States | Oil States Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Oil States Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Oil States' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oil States' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.51 and 11.25, respectively. We have considered Oil States' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oil States stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oil States stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.5789 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0448 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1307 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0184 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.97 |
Predictive Modules for Oil States
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oil States International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Oil States After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Oil States at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oil States or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Oil States, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Oil States Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Oil States' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oil States' historical news coverage. Oil States' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.51 and 11.25, respectively. We have considered Oil States' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Oil States is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oil States International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Oil States Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oil States is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oil States backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oil States, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.66 | 2.37 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.88 | 8.88 | 0.00 |
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Oil States Hype Timeline
On the 4th of February Oil States International is traded for 8.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.1. Oil is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.66%. %. The volatility of related hype on Oil States is about 1569.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.98. About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.73. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Oil States International last dividend was issued on the 29th of October 2010. The entity had 175:100 split on the 2nd of June 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oil States to cross-verify your projections.Oil States Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Oil States' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oil States' future price movements. Getting to know how Oil States' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oil States may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FET | Forum Energy Technologies | 0.04 | 12 per month | 3.58 | 0.17 | 5.52 | (3.56) | 17.20 | |
| NGS | Natural Gas Services | 0.22 | 9 per month | 1.80 | 0.16 | 3.46 | (2.45) | 11.12 | |
| NOA | North American Construction | 0.15 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.61 | (4.12) | 11.20 | |
| RNGR | Ranger Energy Services | (0.1) | 7 per month | 1.78 | 0.12 | 3.77 | (3.79) | 8.57 | |
| SGU | Star Gas Partners | 0.21 | 9 per month | 0.92 | 0.14 | 2.10 | (1.45) | 6.43 | |
| EGY | Vaalco Energy | (0.11) | 7 per month | 1.67 | 0.18 | 5.48 | (3.33) | 10.23 | |
| GEOS | Geospace Technologies | 1.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.86 | (9.68) | 32.68 | |
| GPRK | GeoPark | 0.03 | 9 per month | 2.15 | 0.07 | 4.23 | (3.24) | 32.73 | |
| OBE | Obsidian Energy | 0.05 | 3 per month | 2.53 | 0.11 | 5.16 | (4.05) | 12.32 | |
| GLOP-PA | GasLog Partners LP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.30 | (0.01) | 0.75 | (0.70) | 2.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for Oil States
For every potential investor in Oil, whether a beginner or expert, Oil States' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oil Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oil. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oil States' price trends.Oil States Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oil States stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oil States could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oil States by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Oil States Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oil States stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oil States shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oil States stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oil States International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Oil States Risk Indicators
The analysis of Oil States' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oil States' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oil stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.94 | |||
| Variance | 8.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.93 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Oil States
The number of cover stories for Oil States depends on current market conditions and Oil States' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oil States is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oil States' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Oil States Short Properties
Oil States' future price predictability will typically decrease when Oil States' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Oil States International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Oil States' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oil States' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 62 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 65.4 M |
Additional Tools for Oil Stock Analysis
When running Oil States' price analysis, check to measure Oil States' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oil States is operating at the current time. Most of Oil States' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oil States' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oil States' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oil States to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.