Oji Holdings Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

OJIPY Stock  USD 52.25  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oji Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 52.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.44. Oji Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Oji Holdings' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Oji Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Oji Holdings Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Oji Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oji Holdings Corp from the perspective of Oji Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oji Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 52.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.44.

Oji Holdings after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 52.25  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oji Holdings to cross-verify your projections.

Oji Holdings Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Oji price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oji using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oji charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Oji Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Oji Holdings Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Oji Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oji Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 52.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oji Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oji Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Oji Holdings Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Oji HoldingsOji Holdings Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Oji Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Oji Holdings' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oji Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 52.29 and 52.74, respectively. We have considered Oji Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
52.25
52.51
Expected Value
52.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oji Holdings pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oji Holdings pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.4143
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1219
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0023
SAESum of the absolute errors7.4384
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Oji Holdings Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Oji Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Oji Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oji Holdings Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
52.0352.2552.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
51.8452.0652.28
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
52.2552.2552.25
Details

Oji Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Oji Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oji Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Oji Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Oji Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Oji Holdings' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oji Holdings' historical news coverage. Oji Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.03 and 52.47, respectively. We have considered Oji Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
52.25
52.25
After-hype Price
52.47
Upside
Oji Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oji Holdings Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Oji Holdings Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oji Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oji Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oji Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
0.22
 0.00  
 0.00  
6 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
52.25
52.25
0.00 
115.79  
Notes

Oji Holdings Hype Timeline

Oji Holdings Corp is now traded for 52.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Oji is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 115.79%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Oji Holdings is about 118.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 52.25. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.54. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Oji Holdings Corp recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.21. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of September 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in about 6 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oji Holdings to cross-verify your projections.

Oji Holdings Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Oji Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oji Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Oji Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oji Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MONDYMondi plc 0.00 0 per month 1.21  0  1.98 (1.77) 8.08 
NDGPYNine Dragons Paper 0.19 3 per month 0.00  0.08  0.00  0.00  18.34 
MITUYMitsui Chemicals ADR 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.03  0.00  0.00  13.84 
NDGPFNine Dragons Paper 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.12  3.95  0.00  31.94 
SOMMYSumitomo Chemical Co 0.43 13 per month 1.65 (0.05) 3.23 (3.18) 7.90 
NNCHYNissan Chemical Industries 0.43 13 per month 2.96 (0.02) 4.33 (5.94) 20.44 
POELFThe Navigator 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
PAEKYAneka Tambang Persero 0.19 6 per month 0.00 (0.22) 0.00  0.00  14.89 
JMPLFJohnson Matthey Plc 0.19 3 per month 0.00  0.02  0.00  0.00  6.38 
XYIGYXinyi Glass Holdings 0.43 17 per month 2.13 (0.03) 3.88 (4.75) 17.60 

Other Forecasting Options for Oji Holdings

For every potential investor in Oji, whether a beginner or expert, Oji Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oji Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oji. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oji Holdings' price trends.

Oji Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oji Holdings pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oji Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oji Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Oji Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oji Holdings pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oji Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oji Holdings pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Oji Holdings Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Oji Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Oji Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oji Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oji pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Oji Holdings

The number of cover stories for Oji Holdings depends on current market conditions and Oji Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oji Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oji Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Additional Tools for Oji Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Oji Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Oji Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oji Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Oji Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oji Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oji Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oji Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.