Okta Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| OKTA Stock | USD 88.26 3.78 4.47% |
Okta Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Okta stock prices and determine the direction of Okta Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Okta's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the relative strength indicator of Okta's share price is approaching 48. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Okta, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.56 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.4407 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.6699 | Wall Street Target Price 113.4213 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.7566 |
Using Okta hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Okta Inc from the perspective of Okta response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Okta using Okta's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Okta using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Okta's stock price.
Okta Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Okta's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Okta. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Okta stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 94.9888 | Short Percent 0.0447 | Short Ratio 2.62 | Shares Short Prior Month 6 M | 50 Day MA 87.58 |
Okta Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Okta Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 88.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.61.Okta Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Okta's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Okta. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Okta can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Okta Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Okta's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Okta.
Okta Implied Volatility | 0.59 |
Okta's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Okta Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Okta's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Okta stock will not fluctuate a lot when Okta's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Okta Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 88.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.61. Okta after-hype prediction price | USD 88.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Okta to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Okta contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Okta Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0369% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Okta trading at USD 88.26, that is roughly USD 0.0325 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Okta's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Okta Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.59%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Okta Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Okta's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Okta's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Okta stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Okta's open interest, investors have to compare it to Okta's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Okta is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Okta. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Okta Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Okta price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Okta using various technical indicators. When you analyze Okta charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Okta Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Okta Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 88.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57, mean absolute percentage error of 4.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Okta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Okta's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Okta Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Okta | Okta Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Okta Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Okta's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Okta's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 86.32 and 90.20, respectively. We have considered Okta's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Okta stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Okta stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8677 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0501 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5697 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.018 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 92.615 |
Predictive Modules for Okta
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Okta Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Okta's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Okta After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Okta at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Okta or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Okta, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Okta Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Okta's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Okta's historical news coverage. Okta's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 86.31 and 90.19, respectively. We have considered Okta's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Okta is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Okta Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Okta Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Okta is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Okta backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Okta, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.94 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
88.26 | 88.25 | 0.01 |
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Okta Hype Timeline
Okta Inc is now traded for 88.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Okta is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 88.25. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Okta is about 21555.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 88.26. About 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Okta was now reported as 38.89. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.42. Okta Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Okta to cross-verify your projections.Okta Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Okta's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Okta's future price movements. Getting to know how Okta's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Okta may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FFIV | F5 Networks | 5.58 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.75 | (3.18) | 11.43 | |
| GEN | Gen Digital | (0.49) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.03 | (3.23) | 7.70 | |
| RBRK | Rubrik | (0.92) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.04 | (6.37) | 31.36 | |
| KSPI | Joint Stock | 1.46 | 9 per month | 1.57 | (0.02) | 3.31 | (2.58) | 8.44 | |
| DT | Dynatrace Holdings LLC | 0.58 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 2.62 | (3.61) | 11.08 | |
| NTNX | Nutanix | (1.66) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 3.18 | (5.55) | 21.74 | |
| DOCU | DocuSign | (3.22) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.08 | (4.99) | 12.28 | |
| BSY | Bentley Systems | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.39) | 2.05 | (3.09) | 9.65 | |
| KLAR | Klarna Group plc | (0.82) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 4.76 | (6.00) | 13.05 | |
| GDDY | Godaddy | (0.44) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 1.77 | (3.27) | 9.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Okta
For every potential investor in Okta, whether a beginner or expert, Okta's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Okta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Okta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Okta's price trends.Okta Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Okta stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Okta could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Okta by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Okta Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Okta stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Okta shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Okta stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Okta Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Okta Risk Indicators
The analysis of Okta's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Okta's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting okta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Variance | 4.1 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Okta
The number of cover stories for Okta depends on current market conditions and Okta's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Okta is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Okta's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Okta Short Properties
Okta's future price predictability will typically decrease when Okta's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Okta Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Okta's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Okta's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 175.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.5 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Okta to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is Internet Services & Infrastructure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Okta. Anticipated expansion of Okta directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Okta assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.56 | Earnings Share 1.08 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.116 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Okta Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Okta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Okta's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Okta's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Okta's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Okta's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Okta's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Okta should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Okta's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.