OR Royalties Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

OM40 Stock   34.00  0.40  1.19%   
OM40 Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of OR Royalties' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 7th of February 2026 the relative strength indicator of OR Royalties' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of OR Royalties' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of OR Royalties and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from OR Royalties' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with OR Royalties, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting OR Royalties' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
5.285
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.706
Using OR Royalties hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of OR Royalties from the perspective of OR Royalties response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OR Royalties on the next trading day is expected to be 33.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.95.

OR Royalties after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 33.12  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OR Royalties to cross-verify your projections.

OR Royalties Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine OM40 price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for OM40 using various technical indicators. When you analyze OM40 charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for OR Royalties - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When OR Royalties prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in OR Royalties price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of OR Royalties.

OR Royalties Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OR Royalties on the next trading day is expected to be 33.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88, mean absolute percentage error of 1.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.95.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OM40 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OR Royalties' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

OR Royalties Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest OR Royalties  OR Royalties Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

OR Royalties Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting OR Royalties' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OR Royalties' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.31 and 37.18, respectively. We have considered OR Royalties' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
34.00
33.74
Expected Value
37.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OR Royalties stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OR Royalties stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1927
MADMean absolute deviation0.8824
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0278
SAESum of the absolute errors52.9468
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past OR Royalties observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older OR Royalties observations.

Predictive Modules for OR Royalties

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OR Royalties. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
29.6833.1236.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.5928.0337.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
25.8432.5439.24
Details

OR Royalties After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of OR Royalties at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in OR Royalties or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of OR Royalties, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

OR Royalties Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting OR Royalties' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on OR Royalties' historical news coverage. OR Royalties' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.68 and 36.56, respectively. We have considered OR Royalties' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
34.00
33.12
After-hype Price
36.56
Upside
OR Royalties is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of OR Royalties is based on 3 months time horizon.

OR Royalties Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as OR Royalties is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading OR Royalties backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with OR Royalties, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.40 
3.44
  0.88 
  0.23 
2 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
34.00
33.12
2.59 
156.36  
Notes

OR Royalties Hype Timeline

OR Royalties is now traded for 34.00on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.88, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.23. OM40 is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 33.12. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 156.36%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -2.59%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.4%. The volatility of related hype on OR Royalties is about 587.32%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34.23. About 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company last dividend was issued on the 2nd of January 2026. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OR Royalties to cross-verify your projections.

OR Royalties Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to OR Royalties' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict OR Royalties' future price movements. Getting to know how OR Royalties' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how OR Royalties may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for OR Royalties

For every potential investor in OM40, whether a beginner or expert, OR Royalties' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OM40 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OM40. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OR Royalties' price trends.

OR Royalties Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OR Royalties stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OR Royalties could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OR Royalties by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

OR Royalties Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OR Royalties stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OR Royalties shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OR Royalties stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OR Royalties entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

OR Royalties Risk Indicators

The analysis of OR Royalties' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OR Royalties' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting om40 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for OR Royalties

The number of cover stories for OR Royalties depends on current market conditions and OR Royalties' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that OR Royalties is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about OR Royalties' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in OM40 Stock

OR Royalties financial ratios help investors to determine whether OM40 Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in OM40 with respect to the benefits of owning OR Royalties security.