Odyssey Marine Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average

OMEX Stock  USD 2.28  0.06  2.56%   
Odyssey Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Odyssey Marine's share price is at 52. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Odyssey Marine, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 52

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Odyssey Marine's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Odyssey Marine Exploration, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Odyssey Marine hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Odyssey Marine Exploration from the perspective of Odyssey Marine response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Odyssey Marine Exploration on the next trading day is expected to be 2.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.51.

Odyssey Marine after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 2.28  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Odyssey Marine to cross-verify your projections.

Odyssey Marine Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Odyssey price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Odyssey using various technical indicators. When you analyze Odyssey charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Odyssey Marine is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Odyssey Marine Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Odyssey Marine Exploration on the next trading day is expected to be 2.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.51.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Odyssey Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Odyssey Marine's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Odyssey Marine Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Odyssey Marine  Odyssey Marine Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Odyssey Marine Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Odyssey Marine's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Odyssey Marine's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 7.98, respectively. We have considered Odyssey Marine's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.28
2.28
Expected Value
7.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Odyssey Marine stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Odyssey Marine stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.1088
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0072
MADMean absolute deviation0.0933
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0446
SAESum of the absolute errors5.505
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Odyssey Marine Exploration price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Odyssey Marine. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Odyssey Marine

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Odyssey Marine Explo. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Odyssey Marine's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.112.287.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.091.837.53
Details

Odyssey Marine After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Odyssey Marine at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Odyssey Marine or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Odyssey Marine, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Odyssey Marine Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Odyssey Marine's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Odyssey Marine's historical news coverage. Odyssey Marine's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.11 and 7.98, respectively. We have considered Odyssey Marine's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
2.28
2.28
After-hype Price
7.98
Upside
Odyssey Marine is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Odyssey Marine Explo is based on 3 months time horizon.

Odyssey Marine Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Odyssey Marine is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Odyssey Marine backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Odyssey Marine, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.27 
5.70
  0.06 
  0.02 
6 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
2.28
2.28
0.00 
2,591  
Notes

Odyssey Marine Hype Timeline

Odyssey Marine Explo is now traded for 2.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Odyssey is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.27%. %. The volatility of related hype on Odyssey Marine is about 8260.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.26. About 15.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.02. Odyssey Marine Explo had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:12 split on the 22nd of February 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Odyssey Marine to cross-verify your projections.

Odyssey Marine Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Odyssey Marine's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Odyssey Marine's future price movements. Getting to know how Odyssey Marine's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Odyssey Marine may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SSTSystem1(0.22)10 per month 0.00 (0.09) 7.18 (8.31) 20.96 
YSXTYSX Tech Co 0.01 21 per month 0.00 (0.23) 6.71 (12.41) 33.17 
SCWO374Water Common Stock 0.07 5 per month 9.87  0.02  19.32 (18.87) 45.42 
MPUMega Matrix Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.08) 7.20 (12.61) 44.14 
PMECPrimech Holdings Ltd(0.22)2 per month 0.00 (0.12) 6.86 (9.79) 27.96 
TISITeam Inc 0.01 23 per month 2.91  0.05  4.97 (5.23) 21.87 
AIRTAir T Inc 0.00 0 per month 4.12 (0) 5.40 (5.70) 19.21 
HTCOCaravelle International Group 0.07 22 per month 7.75  0.01  19.12 (11.39) 49.11 
ACCLAcco Group Holdings 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.22) 8.17 (10.86) 43.64 
MESAMESA Old(0.41)4 per month 4.26  0.02  8.97 (7.95) 16.91 

Other Forecasting Options for Odyssey Marine

For every potential investor in Odyssey, whether a beginner or expert, Odyssey Marine's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Odyssey Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Odyssey. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Odyssey Marine's price trends.

Odyssey Marine Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Odyssey Marine stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Odyssey Marine could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Odyssey Marine by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Odyssey Marine Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Odyssey Marine stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Odyssey Marine shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Odyssey Marine stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Odyssey Marine Exploration entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Odyssey Marine Risk Indicators

The analysis of Odyssey Marine's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Odyssey Marine's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting odyssey stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Odyssey Marine

The number of cover stories for Odyssey Marine depends on current market conditions and Odyssey Marine's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Odyssey Marine is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Odyssey Marine's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Odyssey Marine Short Properties

Odyssey Marine's future price predictability will typically decrease when Odyssey Marine's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Odyssey Marine Exploration often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Odyssey Marine's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Odyssey Marine's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding28.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments4.8 M

Additional Tools for Odyssey Stock Analysis

When running Odyssey Marine's price analysis, check to measure Odyssey Marine's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Odyssey Marine is operating at the current time. Most of Odyssey Marine's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Odyssey Marine's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Odyssey Marine's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Odyssey Marine to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.