Oracle Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| ORCL Stock | MXN 3,106 64.03 2.10% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Oracle on the next trading day is expected to be 3,106 with a mean absolute deviation of 114.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,860. Oracle Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Oracle's share price is approaching 33. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Oracle, making its price go up or down. Momentum 33
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Oracle hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oracle from the perspective of Oracle response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Oracle on the next trading day is expected to be 3,106 with a mean absolute deviation of 114.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,860. Oracle after-hype prediction price | MXN 3106.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Oracle |
Oracle Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Oracle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oracle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oracle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Oracle Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Oracle on the next trading day is expected to be 3,106 with a mean absolute deviation of 114.33, mean absolute percentage error of 25,325, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,860.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oracle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oracle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Oracle Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Oracle | Oracle Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Oracle Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Oracle's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oracle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3,103 and 3,109, respectively. We have considered Oracle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oracle stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oracle stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 126.4122 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 51.6715 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 114.326 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0306 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6859.56 |
Predictive Modules for Oracle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oracle. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Oracle After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Oracle at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oracle or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Oracle, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Oracle Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Oracle's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oracle's historical news coverage. Oracle's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3,103 and 3,109, respectively. We have considered Oracle's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Oracle is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oracle is based on 3 months time horizon.
Oracle Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oracle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oracle backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oracle, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.78 | 3.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3,106 | 3,106 | 0.00 |
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Oracle Hype Timeline
Oracle is now traded for 3,106on Mexican Exchange of Mexico. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Oracle is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.78%. %. The volatility of related hype on Oracle is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3,106. About 43.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.49. Oracle recorded earning per share (EPS) of 59.75. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of January 2023. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oracle to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Oracle Stock please use our How to Invest in Oracle guide.Oracle Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Oracle's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oracle's future price movements. Getting to know how Oracle's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oracle may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VZ | Verizon Communications | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.80 | (1.98) | 5.08 | |
| GCARSOA1 | Grupo Carso SAB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.86 | (0.04) | 3.14 | (2.98) | 10.61 | |
| CRM | Salesforce | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.34 | (3.46) | 12.87 | |
| STLD | Steel Dynamics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.25 | 0.16 | 3.58 | (1.22) | 7.71 | |
| CTSH | Cognizant Technology Solutions | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.64 | |
| MU | Micron Technology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.23 | 0.21 | 8.63 | (5.48) | 20.10 | |
| U | Unity Software | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.71 | 0.05 | 6.55 | (5.71) | 30.29 | |
| GMXT | GMxico Transportes SAB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.07 | (2.75) | 10.88 |
Other Forecasting Options for Oracle
For every potential investor in Oracle, whether a beginner or expert, Oracle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oracle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oracle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oracle's price trends.Oracle Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oracle stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oracle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oracle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Oracle Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oracle stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oracle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oracle stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oracle entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 42.58 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.551114 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3120.66 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3115.78 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.0127 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 17.39 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 64.03 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 33.14 |
Oracle Risk Indicators
The analysis of Oracle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oracle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oracle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.35 | |||
| Variance | 11.22 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Oracle
The number of cover stories for Oracle depends on current market conditions and Oracle's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oracle is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oracle's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Oracle Stock Analysis
When running Oracle's price analysis, check to measure Oracle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oracle is operating at the current time. Most of Oracle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oracle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oracle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oracle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.