OReilly Automotive Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| ORLY34 Stock | BRL 1.44 -0.02 -1.37% |
OReilly Automotive's Simple Moving Average forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The forecast is recalculated with each session so it does not rely on stale inputs. The Simple Moving Average model projects OReilly Automotive at 1.44 for the next trading day, at the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.
Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of May 2026
Over a 90-day horizon, the Simple Moving Average model forecasts OReilly Automotive at 1.44 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 1.40 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks OReilly Automotive's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest OReilly Automotive | OReilly Automotive Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This forecast for OReilly Automotive frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The current forecast range spans downside near 0.01 and upside near 3.40. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Simple Moving Average model's error metrics for OReilly Automotive stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.4563 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0035 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0236 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0154 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.395 |
Other Forecasting Options for OReilly Automotive
MACD analysis of OReilly tracks the relationship between two exponential moving averages of OReilly Automotive's price. Many OReilly Automotive's traders use Fibonacci levels to set entry and exit targets based on prior price swings. Average True Range measures the typical daily price swing for OReilly, accounting for gaps.OReilly Automotive Related Equities
These stocks within the Specialty Retail space are often compared to OReilly Automotive by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Market cap and total value checks frame OReilly Automotive's size within the competitive field. How OReilly Automotive ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes. This type of review is most informative when done often to track how positions shift over time.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
OReilly Automotive Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for OReilly Automotive quantify how the stock responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in OReilly Automotive. The Market Facilitation Index measures how efficiently price moves relative to volume — rising MFI with rising volume signals strong trend participation.
OReilly Automotive Risk Indicators
Analyzing OReilly Automotive's risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in OReilly Automotive helps place recent price behavior in context. These metrics are most informative when compared against similar equities with comparable growth profiles and market capitalization.
| Mean Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Variance | 3.91 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.