Oramed Pharmaceuticals Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression

ORMP Stock

USD 3.85 0.01 0.26%

This Polynomial Regression projection for Oramed Pharmaceuticals is fitted to the equity's recent daily closes. Low error metrics relative to the price level indicate the model fits recent trading behavior well. The Polynomial Regression model projects Oramed Pharmaceuticals at 3.97 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This forecast is one analytical input among many and should be assessed in the context of broader analysis.

Polynomial regression for Oramed Pharmaceuticals fits a curved line through historical price points using time as the independent variable. Unlike simple regression, which fits only a straight line, polynomial regression can capture nonlinear price trends including acceleration and deceleration.

Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of April

Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts Oramed Pharmaceuticals at 3.97 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and sum of absolute errors of 6.02 .

This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Oramed Pharmaceuticals' price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Oramed Pharmaceuticals

Oramed Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

Oramed Pharmaceuticals' next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The current forecast range spans downside near 0.97 and upside near 6.98. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.

Market Value

3.85

0.97

Downside

3.97

Expected Value

6.98

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for Oramed Pharmaceuticals stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	115.6694
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.097
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0279
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	6.016

The model takes the form: Y = a₀ + a₁*X + a₂*X² + a₃*X³ + ... + a_m*X^m. Higher-degree polynomials fit Oramed Pharmaceuticals historical data more closely but are more prone to overfitting, which can produce unreliable extrapolations beyond the observed price range.

Other Forecasting Options for Oramed Pharmaceuticals

The autocorrelation structure of Oramed Pharmaceuticals' daily returns reveals whether Oramed exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements distinguishes persistent directional moves from temporary noise in Oramed Stock price data.

Oramed Pharmaceuticals Related Equities

Checking Oramed Pharmaceuticals against related firms within the Health Care space reveals where the stock stands among peers. Market cap and total value checks frame Oramed Pharmaceuticals' size within the competitive field. Peer review is most informative when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks. This type of review is most informative when done often to track how positions shift over time.

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Risk & Return

Correlation

Oramed Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events

Rate of Change and Momentum readings for Oramed Pharmaceuticals measure the velocity of recent price moves rather than direction alone. These indicators add context to how recent sessions in Oramed Pharmaceuticals have behaved.

	Accumulation Distribution	1700.58
	Daily Balance Of Power	0.0909
	Rate Of Daily Change	1.0
	Day Median Price	3.83
	Day Typical Price	3.83
	Price Action Indicator	0.03
	Period Momentum Indicator	0.01

Oramed Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators

Standard deviation and variance for Oramed Pharmaceuticals measure total price dispersion, while semi-deviation isolates only the downside moves. Higher variance relative to sector peers signals that Oramed Pharmaceuticals' price path has been less predictable over the measured period.

	Mean Deviation	2.31
	Semi Deviation	3.05
	Standard Deviation	3.08
	Variance	9.47
	Downside Variance	9.84
	Semi Variance	9.32
	Expected Short fall	-2.29

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Oramed Pharmaceuticals Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Oramed Pharmaceuticals reveal whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	42.4 M
	Cash And Short Term Investments	51.4 M

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average