Militia LongShort Etf Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| ORR Etf | 35.66 0.09 0.25% |
Militia Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Militia LongShort's etf price is slightly above 65. This indicates that the etf is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Militia, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Militia LongShort hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Militia LongShort Equity from the perspective of Militia LongShort response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Militia LongShort Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 36.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.84. Militia LongShort after-hype prediction price | USD 35.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Militia LongShort to cross-verify your projections. Militia LongShort Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Militia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Militia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Militia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Militia LongShort Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Militia LongShort Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 36.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Militia Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Militia LongShort's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Militia LongShort Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Militia LongShort | Militia LongShort Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Militia LongShort Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Militia LongShort's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Militia LongShort's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 35.47 and 36.92, respectively. We have considered Militia LongShort's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Militia LongShort etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Militia LongShort etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5399 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2269 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0067 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.841 |
Predictive Modules for Militia LongShort
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Militia LongShort Equity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Militia LongShort After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Militia LongShort at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Militia LongShort or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Militia LongShort, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Militia LongShort Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Militia LongShort's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Militia LongShort's historical news coverage. Militia LongShort's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 34.93 and 36.39, respectively. We have considered Militia LongShort's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Militia LongShort is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Militia LongShort Equity is based on 3 months time horizon.
Militia LongShort Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Militia LongShort is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Militia LongShort backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Militia LongShort, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
35.66 | 35.66 | 0.00 |
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Militia LongShort Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Militia LongShort Equity is traded for 35.66. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.04. Militia is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.2%. %. The volatility of related hype on Militia LongShort is about 352.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 35.70. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Militia LongShort to cross-verify your projections.Militia LongShort Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Militia LongShort's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Militia LongShort's future price movements. Getting to know how Militia LongShort's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Militia LongShort may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HFND | Unlimited HFND Multi Strategy | (0.05) | 3 per month | 0.44 | (0.02) | 1.24 | (0.88) | 2.98 | |
| RETL | Direxion Daily Retail | 0.26 | 6 per month | 3.05 | 0.03 | 5.26 | (5.50) | 18.66 | |
| ROSC | Hartford Multifactor Small | 0.65 | 2 per month | 0.54 | 0.08 | 2.01 | (1.38) | 4.69 | |
| IDX | VanEck Indonesia Index | 0.01 | 3 per month | 0.58 | 0.03 | 1.57 | (1.08) | 3.99 | |
| FTXR | First Trust Nasdaq | 0.24 | 3 per month | 0.94 | 0.1 | 2.23 | (1.71) | 5.96 | |
| SAA | ProShares Ultra SmallCap600 | 0.25 | 5 per month | 1.91 | 0.06 | 4.04 | (3.71) | 9.67 | |
| LDEM | iShares ESG MSCI | 0.62 | 2 per month | 0.61 | 0.03 | 1.23 | (1.21) | 2.94 | |
| FSGS | First Trust SMID | (0.03) | 3 per month | 0.88 | (0.05) | 1.56 | (1.69) | 3.70 | |
| WBIF | WBI BullBear Value | 0.12 | 3 per month | 0.74 | (0.07) | 1.26 | (1.27) | 2.87 | |
| JFLI | JP Morgan Exchange Traded | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.32 | 0.02 | 0.71 | (0.83) | 2.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for Militia LongShort
For every potential investor in Militia, whether a beginner or expert, Militia LongShort's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Militia Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Militia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Militia LongShort's price trends.Militia LongShort Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Militia LongShort etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Militia LongShort could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Militia LongShort by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Militia LongShort Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Militia LongShort etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Militia LongShort shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Militia LongShort etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Militia LongShort Equity entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Militia LongShort Risk Indicators
The analysis of Militia LongShort's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Militia LongShort's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting militia etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5945 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.522 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.741 | |||
| Variance | 0.5491 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6301 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2724 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.66) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Militia LongShort
The number of cover stories for Militia LongShort depends on current market conditions and Militia LongShort's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Militia LongShort is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Militia LongShort's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Militia LongShort to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
The market value of Militia LongShort Equity is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Militia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Militia LongShort's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Militia LongShort's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Militia LongShort's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Militia LongShort's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Militia LongShort's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Militia LongShort is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Militia LongShort's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.