Oppenheimer Main Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

OSCNX Fund  USD 24.55  0.40  1.66%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oppenheimer Main Street on the next trading day is expected to be 24.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.36. Oppenheimer Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Oppenheimer Main is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Oppenheimer Main Street value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Oppenheimer Main Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oppenheimer Main Street on the next trading day is expected to be 24.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.36.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oppenheimer Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oppenheimer Main's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Oppenheimer Main Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Oppenheimer Main Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Oppenheimer Main's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oppenheimer Main's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.86 and 25.34, respectively. We have considered Oppenheimer Main's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.55
24.10
Expected Value
25.34
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oppenheimer Main mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oppenheimer Main mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.2147
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3174
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.014
SAESum of the absolute errors19.3605
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Oppenheimer Main Street. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Oppenheimer Main. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Oppenheimer Main

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oppenheimer Main Street. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
23.3124.5525.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
22.8724.1125.35
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
21.6523.2324.80
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Oppenheimer Main

For every potential investor in Oppenheimer, whether a beginner or expert, Oppenheimer Main's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oppenheimer Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oppenheimer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oppenheimer Main's price trends.

Oppenheimer Main Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oppenheimer Main mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oppenheimer Main could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oppenheimer Main by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Oppenheimer Main Street Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Oppenheimer Main's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Oppenheimer Main's current price.

Oppenheimer Main Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oppenheimer Main mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oppenheimer Main shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oppenheimer Main mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Oppenheimer Main Street entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Oppenheimer Main Risk Indicators

The analysis of Oppenheimer Main's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oppenheimer Main's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oppenheimer mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Oppenheimer Mutual Fund

Oppenheimer Main financial ratios help investors to determine whether Oppenheimer Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Oppenheimer with respect to the benefits of owning Oppenheimer Main security.
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