PHLX Oil Index Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| OSX Index | 80.59 0.22 0.27% |
PHLX Oil Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PHLX Oil Service on the next trading day is expected to be 80.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.07, mean absolute percentage error of 2.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PHLX Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PHLX Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PHLX Oil Index Forecast Pattern
PHLX Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PHLX Oil's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PHLX Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 78.92 and 82.70, respectively. We have considered PHLX Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PHLX Oil index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PHLX Oil index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0895 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0654 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0137 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 62.86 |
Predictive Modules for PHLX Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PHLX Oil Service. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for PHLX Oil
For every potential investor in PHLX, whether a beginner or expert, PHLX Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PHLX Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PHLX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PHLX Oil's price trends.PHLX Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PHLX Oil index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PHLX Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PHLX Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PHLX Oil Service Technical and Predictive Analytics
The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PHLX Oil's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PHLX Oil's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PHLX Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PHLX Oil index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PHLX Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PHLX Oil index market strength indicators, traders can identify PHLX Oil Service entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
PHLX Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of PHLX Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PHLX Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting phlx index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Variance | 3.88 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.