Oppenheimer Target Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression

OTFCX Fund  USD 38.18  0.12  0.31%   
Oppenheimer Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Oppenheimer Target's mutual fund price is slightly above 67. This indicates that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Oppenheimer, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 67

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Oppenheimer Target's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Oppenheimer Target, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Oppenheimer Target hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oppenheimer Target from the perspective of Oppenheimer Target response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Oppenheimer Target on the next trading day is expected to be 39.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 139.93.

Oppenheimer Target after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oppenheimer Target to cross-verify your projections.

Oppenheimer Target Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Oppenheimer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oppenheimer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oppenheimer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Oppenheimer Target price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Oppenheimer Target Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Oppenheimer Target on the next trading day is expected to be 39.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.29, mean absolute percentage error of 7.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 139.93.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oppenheimer Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oppenheimer Target's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Oppenheimer Target Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Oppenheimer Target  Oppenheimer Target Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Oppenheimer Target Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Oppenheimer Target's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oppenheimer Target's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.92 and 44.86, respectively. We have considered Oppenheimer Target's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
38.18
39.89
Expected Value
44.86
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oppenheimer Target mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oppenheimer Target mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.0681
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.294
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0737
SAESum of the absolute errors139.9321
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Oppenheimer Target historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Oppenheimer Target

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oppenheimer Target. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oppenheimer Target's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.004.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.244.779.74
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
37.1837.8438.49
Details

Oppenheimer Target After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Oppenheimer Target at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oppenheimer Target or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Oppenheimer Target, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Oppenheimer Target Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Oppenheimer Target's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oppenheimer Target's historical news coverage. Oppenheimer Target's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 4.97, respectively. We have considered Oppenheimer Target's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
38.18
0.00
After-hype Price
4.97
Upside
Oppenheimer Target is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oppenheimer Target is based on 3 months time horizon.

Oppenheimer Target Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Oppenheimer Target is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oppenheimer Target backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oppenheimer Target, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.55 
4.97
 0.00  
  1.44 
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
38.18
0.00
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Oppenheimer Target Hype Timeline

Oppenheimer Target is now traded for 38.18. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -1.44. Oppenheimer is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.55%. %. The volatility of related hype on Oppenheimer Target is about 190.01%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 36.74. The company last dividend was issued on the 20th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oppenheimer Target to cross-verify your projections.

Oppenheimer Target Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Oppenheimer Target's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oppenheimer Target's future price movements. Getting to know how Oppenheimer Target's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oppenheimer Target may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Oppenheimer Target

For every potential investor in Oppenheimer, whether a beginner or expert, Oppenheimer Target's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oppenheimer Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oppenheimer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oppenheimer Target's price trends.

Oppenheimer Target Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oppenheimer Target mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oppenheimer Target could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oppenheimer Target by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Oppenheimer Target Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oppenheimer Target mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oppenheimer Target shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oppenheimer Target mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Oppenheimer Target entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Oppenheimer Target Risk Indicators

The analysis of Oppenheimer Target's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oppenheimer Target's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oppenheimer mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Oppenheimer Target

The number of cover stories for Oppenheimer Target depends on current market conditions and Oppenheimer Target's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oppenheimer Target is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oppenheimer Target's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Oppenheimer Mutual Fund

Oppenheimer Target financial ratios help investors to determine whether Oppenheimer Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Oppenheimer with respect to the benefits of owning Oppenheimer Target security.
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