Otokar Otomotiv Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

OTKAR Stock  TRY 453.25  5.00  1.09%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Otokar Otomotiv ve on the next trading day is expected to be 468.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 643.36. Otokar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Otokar Otomotiv's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Otokar Otomotiv is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Otokar Otomotiv ve value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Otokar Otomotiv Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Otokar Otomotiv ve on the next trading day is expected to be 468.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.55, mean absolute percentage error of 192.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 643.36.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Otokar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Otokar Otomotiv's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Otokar Otomotiv Stock Forecast Pattern

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Otokar Otomotiv Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Otokar Otomotiv's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Otokar Otomotiv's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 466.28 and 470.61, respectively. We have considered Otokar Otomotiv's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
453.25
466.28
Downside
468.45
Expected Value
470.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Otokar Otomotiv stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Otokar Otomotiv stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.371
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation10.5468
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0239
SAESum of the absolute errors643.3561
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Otokar Otomotiv ve. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Otokar Otomotiv. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Otokar Otomotiv

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Otokar Otomotiv ve. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
451.07453.25455.43
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
447.88450.06498.58
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Otokar Otomotiv

For every potential investor in Otokar, whether a beginner or expert, Otokar Otomotiv's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Otokar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Otokar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Otokar Otomotiv's price trends.

Otokar Otomotiv Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Otokar Otomotiv stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Otokar Otomotiv could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Otokar Otomotiv by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Otokar Otomotiv ve Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Otokar Otomotiv's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Otokar Otomotiv's current price.

Otokar Otomotiv Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Otokar Otomotiv stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Otokar Otomotiv shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Otokar Otomotiv stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Otokar Otomotiv ve entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Otokar Otomotiv Risk Indicators

The analysis of Otokar Otomotiv's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Otokar Otomotiv's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting otokar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Other Information on Investing in Otokar Stock

Otokar Otomotiv financial ratios help investors to determine whether Otokar Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Otokar with respect to the benefits of owning Otokar Otomotiv security.