OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| OTLK Stock | USD 0.45 0 0.22% |
OUTLOOK Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS fundamentals over time.
As of now, the RSI of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's share price is approaching 33. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS, making its price go up or down. Momentum 33
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.21) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.67) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.41) | Wall Street Target Price 5.375 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.25) |
Using OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC from the perspective of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS using OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards OUTLOOK using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's stock price.
OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Short Interest
An investor who is long OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS and may potentially protect profits, hedge OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 1.5633 | Short Percent 0.0659 | Short Ratio 0.38 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.1 M | 50 Day MA 1.446 |
OUTLOOK Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.29.OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in OUTLOOK. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding OUTLOOK can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS.
OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Implied Volatility | 1.14 |
OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS stock will not fluctuate a lot when OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.29. OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS after-hype prediction price | USD 0.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current OUTLOOK contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0712% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS trading at USD 0.449, that is roughly USD 3.2E-4 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's daily price movement you should consider acquiring OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC options at the current volatility level of 1.14%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 OUTLOOK Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's open interest, investors have to compare it to OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in OUTLOOK. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine OUTLOOK price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for OUTLOOK using various technical indicators. When you analyze OUTLOOK charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OUTLOOK Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS | OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 10.36, respectively. We have considered OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5746 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0135 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0882 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0734 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.291 |
Predictive Modules for OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's historical news coverage. OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.02 and 10.29, respectively. We have considered OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC is based on 3 months time horizon.
OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.00 | 9.91 | 0.07 | 0.28 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.45 | 0.38 | 15.37 |
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OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Hype Timeline
OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC is now traded for 0.45. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.28. OUTLOOK is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.38. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -15.37%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -1.0%. The volatility of related hype on OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS is about 3501.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.17. About 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.79. OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC last dividend was issued on the 18th of March 2019. The entity had 1:20 split on the 14th of March 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS to cross-verify your projections.OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's future price movements. Getting to know how OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SPRB | Spruce Biosciences Common | (0.61) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.15 | (9.46) | 31.24 | |
| NRXP | NRX Pharmaceuticals | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 7.34 | (8.02) | 21.29 | |
| CUE | Cue Biopharma | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 11.11 | (12.50) | 50.98 | |
| HOWL | Werewolf Therapeutics | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 8.70 | (8.00) | 51.99 | |
| IOBT | IO Biotech | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 13.33 | (16.22) | 151.49 | |
| OSTX | OS Therapies Incorporated | (0.14) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.49 | (6.84) | 16.39 | |
| COEP | Coeptis Therapeutics | (2.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.44 | (6.12) | 22.14 | |
| EQ | Equillium | (0.01) | 10 per month | 6.55 | 0.04 | 19.26 | (12.50) | 43.07 | |
| IPSC | Century Therapeutics | 0.06 | 10 per month | 4.92 | 0.26 | 13.95 | (9.09) | 55.97 | |
| MDCX | Medicus Pharma Ltd | 0.01 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 7.32 | (9.90) | 22.59 |
Other Forecasting Options for OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS
For every potential investor in OUTLOOK, whether a beginner or expert, OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OUTLOOK Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OUTLOOK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's price trends.OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.45 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.45 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 33.3 |
OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Risk Indicators
The analysis of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting outlook stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.59 | |||
| Variance | 91.93 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS
The number of cover stories for OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS depends on current market conditions and OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS Short Properties
OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's future price predictability will typically decrease when OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.1 T |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS. Anticipated expansion of OUTLOOK directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Earnings Share (1.79) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 6.583 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of OUTLOOK that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.