Bima Sakti Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PAMG Stock  IDR 63.00  6.00  8.70%   
Bima Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Bima Sakti's share price is approaching 37 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bima Sakti, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 37

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Bima Sakti's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Bima Sakti Pertiwi, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Bima Sakti hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bima Sakti Pertiwi from the perspective of Bima Sakti response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bima Sakti Pertiwi on the next trading day is expected to be 63.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 139.71.

Bima Sakti after-hype prediction price

    
  IDR 63.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bima Sakti to cross-verify your projections.

Bima Sakti Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Bima price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bima using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bima charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Bima Sakti simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Bima Sakti Pertiwi are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Bima Sakti Pertiwi prices get older.

Bima Sakti Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bima Sakti Pertiwi on the next trading day is expected to be 63.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.29, mean absolute percentage error of 14.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 139.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bima Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bima Sakti's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bima Sakti Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bima Sakti  Bima Sakti Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Bima Sakti Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bima Sakti's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bima Sakti's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 58.00 and 69.77, respectively. We have considered Bima Sakti's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
63.00
63.89
Expected Value
69.77
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bima Sakti stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bima Sakti stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.7837
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.024
MADMean absolute deviation2.2903
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0328
SAESum of the absolute errors139.7073
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Bima Sakti Pertiwi forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Bima Sakti observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Bima Sakti

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bima Sakti Pertiwi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
57.1263.0068.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
51.0356.9169.30
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
-5565.0071.00
Details

Bima Sakti After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Bima Sakti at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bima Sakti or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bima Sakti, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Bima Sakti Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Bima Sakti's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bima Sakti's historical news coverage. Bima Sakti's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 57.12 and 68.88, respectively. We have considered Bima Sakti's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
63.00
63.00
After-hype Price
68.88
Upside
Bima Sakti is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bima Sakti Pertiwi is based on 3 months time horizon.

Bima Sakti Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bima Sakti is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bima Sakti backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bima Sakti, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.16 
5.88
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
63.00
63.00
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Bima Sakti Hype Timeline

Bima Sakti Pertiwi is at this time traded for 63.00on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Bima is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bima Sakti is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 63.00. About 68.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 105.99. Bima Sakti Pertiwi recorded a loss per share of 2.99. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bima Sakti to cross-verify your projections.

Bima Sakti Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Bima Sakti's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bima Sakti's future price movements. Getting to know how Bima Sakti's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bima Sakti may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BIPPBhuwanatala Indah Permai 0.00 0 per month 5.09  0.12  9.46 (9.76) 24.42 
WINRPT Winner Nusantara 0.00 0 per month 4.92  0.01  9.38 (9.33) 19.76 
TARAAgung Semesta Sejahtera 0.00 0 per month 5.27  0.10  9.62 (8.51) 19.62 
BCIPBumi Citra Permai 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.09) 4.94 (7.50) 39.14 
DFAMPT Dafam Property 0.00 0 per month 3.59  0.06  10.71 (5.66) 32.35 
NZIANusantara Almazia 0.00 0 per month 2.65  0.19  34.09 (6.42) 41.72 
BKDPBukit Darmo Property 0.00 0 per month 4.82  0.19  9.68 (8.82) 19.78 
RBMSRistia Bintang Mahkotasejati 0.00 0 per month 3.97  0.07  9.68 (7.14) 19.80 
SATUKota Satu Properti 0.00 0 per month 1.21 (0.02) 3.17 (2.33) 9.38 
AKKUAnugerah Kagum Karya 0.00 0 per month 4.84  0.02  8.70 (8.89) 19.52 

Other Forecasting Options for Bima Sakti

For every potential investor in Bima, whether a beginner or expert, Bima Sakti's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bima Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bima. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bima Sakti's price trends.

Bima Sakti Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bima Sakti stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bima Sakti could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bima Sakti by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bima Sakti Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bima Sakti stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bima Sakti shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bima Sakti stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bima Sakti Pertiwi entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bima Sakti Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bima Sakti's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bima Sakti's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bima stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Bima Sakti

The number of cover stories for Bima Sakti depends on current market conditions and Bima Sakti's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bima Sakti is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bima Sakti's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Bima Sakti Short Properties

Bima Sakti's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bima Sakti's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bima Sakti Pertiwi often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bima Sakti's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bima Sakti's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding3.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments3.6 B

Other Information on Investing in Bima Stock

Bima Sakti financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bima Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bima with respect to the benefits of owning Bima Sakti security.