T ROWE Mutual Fund Forward View - 8 Period Moving Average
| PARCX Fund | USD 29.10 0.37 1.29% |
T Rowe Price's 8 Period Moving Average forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The forecast is recalculated with each session so it does not rely on stale inputs. A small Bias confirms the model is not systematically over- or under-predicting. The 8 Period Moving Average model projects T ROWE at 28.71 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.
8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average model forecasts T ROWE at 28.71 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 17.49 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks T ROWE's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest T ROWE | T ROWE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
T ROWE's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The model places downside around 28.00 and upside around 29.42 for the next session. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the 8 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for T ROWE mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 103.3799 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0432 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.324 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0116 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.495 |
Other Forecasting Options for T ROWE
Bollinger Bands applied to PARCX Mutual Fund price data measure how far PARCX has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to T ROWE's price data. On-balance volume for PARCX Mutual Fund creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in PARCX. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for T ROWE's.T ROWE Related Equities
These stocks are related to T ROWE within the Target-Date 2030 space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. This type of review is most informative when done often to track how positions shift over time.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T ROWE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for T ROWE quantify how the mutual fund responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in T ROWE. The Market Facilitation Index measures how efficiently price moves relative to volume — rising MFI with rising volume signals strong trend participation. Monitoring these indicators for T ROWE through complete market cycles reveals recurring patterns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 29.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 29.1 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.19 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.37 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 62.98 |
T ROWE Risk Indicators
Analyzing T ROWE's risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in T ROWE helps place recent price behavior in context. These metrics are most informative when compared against similar equities with comparable growth profiles and market capitalization. When semi-deviation is high relative to standard deviation, T ROWE's losses have been disproportionately large compared to gains.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5299 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5791 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7125 | |||
| Variance | 0.5077 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4761 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3354 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.55 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.