Par Pacific Stock Forward View
| PARR Stock | USD 37.73 0.01 0.03% |
Par Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Par Pacific's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Par Pacific's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Par Pacific fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength momentum indicator of Par Pacific's share price is at 51 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Par Pacific, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 38.692 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.3019 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.7897 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.7849 | Wall Street Target Price 45.5 |
Using Par Pacific hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Par Pacific Holdings from the perspective of Par Pacific response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Par Pacific using Par Pacific's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Par using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Par Pacific's stock price.
Par Pacific Short Interest
An investor who is long Par Pacific may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Par Pacific and may potentially protect profits, hedge Par Pacific with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 32.0206 | Short Percent 0.125 | Short Ratio 3.79 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.3 M | 50 Day MA 39.3976 |
Par Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Par Pacific Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 35.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.75.Par Pacific Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Par Pacific's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Par. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Par can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Par Pacific Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Par Pacific's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Par Pacific.
Par Pacific Implied Volatility | 0.71 |
Par Pacific's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Par Pacific Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Par Pacific's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Par Pacific stock will not fluctuate a lot when Par Pacific's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Par Pacific Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 35.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.75. Par Pacific after-hype prediction price | USD 37.77 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Par Pacific to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Par contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Par Pacific Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0444% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Par Pacific trading at USD 37.73, that is roughly USD 0.0167 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Par Pacific's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Par Pacific Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.71%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Par Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Par Pacific's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Par Pacific's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Par Pacific stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Par Pacific's open interest, investors have to compare it to Par Pacific's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Par Pacific is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Par. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Par Pacific Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Par price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Par using various technical indicators. When you analyze Par charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Par Pacific Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Par Pacific's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1993-03-31 | Previous Quarter 169.2 M | Current Value 159.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 101.9 M |
Par Pacific Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Par Pacific Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 35.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11, mean absolute percentage error of 1.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Par Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Par Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Par Pacific Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Par Pacific | Par Pacific Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Par Pacific Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Par Pacific's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Par Pacific's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.38 and 38.43, respectively. We have considered Par Pacific's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Par Pacific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Par Pacific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6733 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1106 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0283 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 67.7475 |
Predictive Modules for Par Pacific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Par Pacific Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Par Pacific After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Par Pacific at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Par Pacific or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Par Pacific, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Par Pacific Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Par Pacific's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Par Pacific's historical news coverage. Par Pacific's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 34.72 and 40.82, respectively. We have considered Par Pacific's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Par Pacific is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Par Pacific Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Par Pacific Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Par Pacific is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Par Pacific backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Par Pacific, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 3.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 13 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
37.73 | 37.77 | 0.08 |
|
Par Pacific Hype Timeline
Par Pacific Holdings is at this time traded for 37.73. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Par is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 37.77 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Par Pacific is about 915.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.75. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 7.97 B. Net Loss for the year was (33.32 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.2 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Par Pacific to cross-verify your projections.Par Pacific Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Par Pacific's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Par Pacific's future price movements. Getting to know how Par Pacific's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Par Pacific may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CSAN | Cosan SA ADR | (0.23) | 8 per month | 3.15 | 0 | 5.52 | (6.29) | 18.30 | |
| DK | Delek Energy | 0.16 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 4.15 | (3.81) | 12.71 | |
| TRMD | Torm PLC Class | 0.15 | 8 per month | 1.29 | 0.12 | 4.36 | (2.28) | 10.37 | |
| DHT | DHT Holdings | 0.27 | 9 per month | 1.36 | 0.09 | 3.00 | (2.35) | 12.28 | |
| TNK | Teekay Tankers | 3.50 | 9 per month | 1.71 | 0.05 | 2.94 | (2.68) | 12.96 | |
| GEL | Genesis Energy LP | 0.28 | 7 per month | 1.72 | 0.05 | 3.59 | (2.86) | 8.12 | |
| BKV | BKV Corporation | (0.20) | 8 per month | 2.14 | 0.18 | 5.14 | (3.24) | 19.36 | |
| NOG | Northern Oil Gas | 0.28 | 7 per month | 2.34 | 0.08 | 5.26 | (3.89) | 10.76 | |
| CRGY | Crescent Energy Co | (0.51) | 10 per month | 3.02 | 0.08 | 4.89 | (5.18) | 15.66 | |
| SDRL | Seadrill Limited | (0.40) | 12 per month | 2.23 | 0.11 | 4.85 | (3.85) | 14.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for Par Pacific
For every potential investor in Par, whether a beginner or expert, Par Pacific's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Par Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Par. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Par Pacific's price trends.Par Pacific Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Par Pacific stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Par Pacific could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Par Pacific by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Par Pacific Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Par Pacific stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Par Pacific shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Par Pacific stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Par Pacific Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Par Pacific Risk Indicators
The analysis of Par Pacific's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Par Pacific's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting par stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.02 | |||
| Variance | 9.11 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Par Pacific
The number of cover stories for Par Pacific depends on current market conditions and Par Pacific's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Par Pacific is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Par Pacific's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Par Pacific Short Properties
Par Pacific's future price predictability will typically decrease when Par Pacific's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Par Pacific Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Par Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Par Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 56.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 191.9 M |
Additional Tools for Par Stock Analysis
When running Par Pacific's price analysis, check to measure Par Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Par Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of Par Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Par Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Par Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Par Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.