PCCW Pink Sheet Forward View

PCCWY Stock  USD 7.63  0.49  6.86%   
PCCW Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of PCCW's share price is below 20 indicating that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of PCCW's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with PCCW Limited, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using PCCW hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PCCW Limited from the perspective of PCCW response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of PCCW Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 7.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.34.

PCCW after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 7.63  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PCCW to cross-verify your projections.

PCCW Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine PCCW price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PCCW using various technical indicators. When you analyze PCCW charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for PCCW is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of PCCW Limited value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

PCCW Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of PCCW Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 7.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PCCW Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PCCW's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PCCW Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest PCCW  PCCW Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

PCCW Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting PCCW's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PCCW's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.52 and 11.27, respectively. We have considered PCCW's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.63
7.89
Expected Value
11.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PCCW pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PCCW pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.9519
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1532
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0207
SAESum of the absolute errors9.3423
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of PCCW Limited. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict PCCW. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for PCCW

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PCCW Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PCCW's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.257.6311.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.996.379.75
Details

PCCW After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of PCCW at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PCCW or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of PCCW, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

PCCW Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting PCCW's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PCCW's historical news coverage. PCCW's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.25 and 11.01, respectively. We have considered PCCW's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
7.63
7.63
After-hype Price
11.01
Upside
PCCW is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PCCW Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.

PCCW Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PCCW is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PCCW backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PCCW, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.19 
3.38
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
7.63
7.63
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

PCCW Hype Timeline

PCCW Limited is at this time traded for 7.63. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. PCCW is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on PCCW is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.63. The book value of the company was at this time reported as 15.41. The company last dividend was issued on the 25th of August 2022. PCCW Limited had 1:5 split on the 7th of January 2003. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PCCW to cross-verify your projections.

PCCW Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to PCCW's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PCCW's future price movements. Getting to know how PCCW's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PCCW may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for PCCW

For every potential investor in PCCW, whether a beginner or expert, PCCW's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PCCW Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PCCW. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PCCW's price trends.

PCCW Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PCCW pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PCCW could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PCCW by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PCCW Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PCCW pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PCCW shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PCCW pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify PCCW Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

PCCW Risk Indicators

The analysis of PCCW's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PCCW's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pccw pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for PCCW

The number of cover stories for PCCW depends on current market conditions and PCCW's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PCCW is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PCCW's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for PCCW Pink Sheet Analysis

When running PCCW's price analysis, check to measure PCCW's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PCCW is operating at the current time. Most of PCCW's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PCCW's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PCCW's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PCCW to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.