Pacific Basin Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

PCFBY Stock  USD 6.80  0.29  4.09%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pacific Basin Shipping on the next trading day is expected to be 7.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.19. Pacific Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Pacific Basin's share price is below 20 indicating that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Pacific Basin's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Pacific Basin Shipping, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Pacific Basin hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pacific Basin Shipping from the perspective of Pacific Basin response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pacific Basin Shipping on the next trading day is expected to be 7.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.19.

Pacific Basin after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 10.65  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pacific Basin to cross-verify your projections.

Pacific Basin Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Pacific price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pacific using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pacific charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Pacific Basin is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Pacific Basin Shipping value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Pacific Basin Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pacific Basin Shipping on the next trading day is expected to be 7.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.19.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pacific Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pacific Basin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pacific Basin Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Pacific BasinPacific Basin Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Pacific Basin Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Pacific Basin's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pacific Basin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.82 and 10.93, respectively. We have considered Pacific Basin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.80
7.38
Expected Value
10.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pacific Basin pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pacific Basin pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.933
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1644
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0257
SAESum of the absolute errors10.1931
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Pacific Basin Shipping. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Pacific Basin. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Pacific Basin

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pacific Basin Shipping. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.1210.6514.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.746.309.86
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Pacific Basin. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Pacific Basin's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Pacific Basin's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Pacific Basin Shipping.

Pacific Basin After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Pacific Basin at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pacific Basin or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Pacific Basin, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Pacific Basin Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Pacific Basin's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pacific Basin's historical news coverage. Pacific Basin's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.12 and 14.21, respectively. We have considered Pacific Basin's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
6.80
10.65
After-hype Price
14.21
Upside
Pacific Basin is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pacific Basin Shipping is based on 3 months time horizon.

Pacific Basin Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pacific Basin is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pacific Basin backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pacific Basin, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.13 
3.56
  3.49 
  1.16 
8 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
6.80
10.65
56.55 
13.24  
Notes

Pacific Basin Hype Timeline

Pacific Basin Shipping is at this time traded for 6.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 3.49, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.16. Pacific is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 10.645309734513274 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 13.24%. The price jump on the next news is estimated to be 56.55%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Pacific Basin is about 39.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.96. Pacific Basin Shipping has accumulated 521.36 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.26, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Pacific Basin Shipping has a current ratio of 2.2, suggesting that it is liquid and has the ability to pay its financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Pacific Basin until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Pacific Basin's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Pacific Basin Shipping sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Pacific to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Pacific Basin's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pacific Basin to cross-verify your projections.

Pacific Basin Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Pacific Basin's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pacific Basin's future price movements. Getting to know how Pacific Basin's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pacific Basin may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SOIEFStolt Nielsen Limited 26.88 4 per month 0.00  0.03  3.13 (0.38) 10.06 
HOEGFHEgh Autoliners AS 0.00 0 per month 1.96  0.02  3.18 (3.61) 9.19 
CKNHFClarkson PLC 26.88 4 per month 0.00  0.13  2.05 (0.63) 9.22 
CADLFCadeler AS 8.87 15 per month 0.00 (0.07) 0.00  0.00  14.86 
HHULYHamburger Hafen Und 26.88 12 per month 0.00 (0.10) 4.12 (4.33) 20.85 
RUSMFRussel Metals 0.00 0 per month 1.22  0.13  2.43 (1.71) 8.21 
SYRVFSacyr SA 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
CITAYCOSCO SHIPPING Development 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.12) 0.00  0.00  3.44 
BFSAFBefesa SA 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.20) 0.00  0.00  11.24 
CHDGFCOSCO SHIPPING International 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.02  0.00 (1.30) 17.21 

Other Forecasting Options for Pacific Basin

For every potential investor in Pacific, whether a beginner or expert, Pacific Basin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pacific Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pacific. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pacific Basin's price trends.

Pacific Basin Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pacific Basin pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pacific Basin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pacific Basin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Pacific Basin Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pacific Basin pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pacific Basin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pacific Basin pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Pacific Basin Shipping entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Pacific Basin Risk Indicators

The analysis of Pacific Basin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pacific Basin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pacific pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Pacific Basin

The number of cover stories for Pacific Basin depends on current market conditions and Pacific Basin's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pacific Basin is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pacific Basin's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Additional Tools for Pacific Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Pacific Basin's price analysis, check to measure Pacific Basin's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pacific Basin is operating at the current time. Most of Pacific Basin's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pacific Basin's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pacific Basin's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pacific Basin to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.