PCC Rokita Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| PCR Stock | 72.70 0.20 0.28% |
PCC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of PCC Rokita's stock price is slightly above 66 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling PCC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using PCC Rokita hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PCC Rokita SA from the perspective of PCC Rokita response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PCC Rokita SA on the next trading day is expected to be 72.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.51. PCC Rokita after-hype prediction price | PLN 72.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
PCC |
PCC Rokita Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PCC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PCC using various technical indicators. When you analyze PCC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PCC Rokita Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PCC Rokita SA on the next trading day is expected to be 72.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PCC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PCC Rokita's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PCC Rokita Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PCC Rokita | PCC Rokita Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
PCC Rokita Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PCC Rokita's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PCC Rokita's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 71.59 and 74.00, respectively. We have considered PCC Rokita's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PCC Rokita stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PCC Rokita stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0329 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5086 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0075 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.5144 |
Predictive Modules for PCC Rokita
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PCC Rokita SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PCC Rokita's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
PCC Rokita After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PCC Rokita at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PCC Rokita or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PCC Rokita, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PCC Rokita Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PCC Rokita's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PCC Rokita's historical news coverage. PCC Rokita's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 71.50 and 73.90, respectively. We have considered PCC Rokita's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PCC Rokita is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PCC Rokita SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
PCC Rokita Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PCC Rokita is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PCC Rokita backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PCC Rokita, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
72.70 | 72.70 | 0.00 |
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PCC Rokita Hype Timeline
PCC Rokita SA is at this time traded for 72.70on Warsaw Stock Exchange of Poland. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. PCC is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on PCC Rokita is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 72.70. About 84.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.57. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. PCC Rokita SA recorded earning per share (EPS) of 28.65. The entity last dividend was issued on the 26th of April 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PCC Rokita to cross-verify your projections.PCC Rokita Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PCC Rokita's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PCC Rokita's future price movements. Getting to know how PCC Rokita's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PCC Rokita may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LSI | LSI Software SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.20 | 0.08 | 2.96 | (2.41) | 10.15 | |
| MDG | Medicalg | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.70 | (3.45) | 14.01 | |
| MLK | Mlk Foods Public | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.09 | 0.05 | 4.55 | (4.12) | 18.00 | |
| TOW | Tower Investments SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CFS | Centrum Finansowe Banku | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.37 | 0.09 | 2.86 | (3.45) | 18.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for PCC Rokita
For every potential investor in PCC, whether a beginner or expert, PCC Rokita's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PCC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PCC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PCC Rokita's price trends.PCC Rokita Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PCC Rokita stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PCC Rokita could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PCC Rokita by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PCC Rokita Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PCC Rokita stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PCC Rokita shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PCC Rokita stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PCC Rokita SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
PCC Rokita Risk Indicators
The analysis of PCC Rokita's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PCC Rokita's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pcc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7276 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5957 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Variance | 1.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.617 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3549 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.04) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PCC Rokita
The number of cover stories for PCC Rokita depends on current market conditions and PCC Rokita's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PCC Rokita is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PCC Rokita's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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PCC Rokita Short Properties
PCC Rokita's future price predictability will typically decrease when PCC Rokita's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PCC Rokita SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PCC Rokita's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PCC Rokita's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 322.2 M |
Additional Tools for PCC Stock Analysis
When running PCC Rokita's price analysis, check to measure PCC Rokita's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PCC Rokita is operating at the current time. Most of PCC Rokita's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PCC Rokita's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PCC Rokita's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PCC Rokita to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.